Hawkesbury · Race 5
Davo's Dash Mdn Plate
1000m · Going unknown · $42,000
Our Pick
Reign 'em In
Quickest recent time figure in the field — 10.0s under track par.
Archibald/Sherry combo striking 33% above expectation over last 100 runs.
Placed last start, beaten 1L — racing in form.
The Read
Reign 'em In holds the quickest recent time figure in the field at 10.0s under track par, and comes to this race off a placing where it was beaten just 1 length — clear evidence of racing form. The Archibald/Sherry training and riding combination has struck 33% above expectation over the last 100, and barrier 2 is a genuine advantage for securing a soft run. The main watch point is whether that recent speed can translate from its last-start context to this assignment.
What's pushing the model rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Full Field
The read on each runner — look past the pick for value.
Cosmic Order
J: Ashley Morgan · T: Matthew Smith
Cosmic Order's case leans on recent speed—among the quickest time figures in the field at 8.6s under track par—and a trainer-jockey combo (Matthew Smith and Ashley Morgan) that is striking 34% above expectation over the last 100 runs. The draw at barrier 1 is a further plus, offering a soft run into the race. Watch for any signs of fitness concern, as freshness details were not provided.
Reign 'em InTOP PICK
J: Tom Sherry · T: Annabel & Rob Archibald
Reign 'em In holds the quickest recent time figure in the field at 10.0s under track par, and comes to this race off a placing where it was beaten just 1 length — clear evidence of racing form. The Archibald/Sherry training and riding combination has struck 33% above expectation over the last 100, and barrier 2 is a genuine advantage for securing a soft run. The main watch point is whether that recent speed can translate from its last-start context to this assignment.
Shinko Star
J: Tyler Schiller · T: Marc Chevalier
Marc Chevalier and Tyler Schiller combine at 174% of expected strike rate over their last 100 runners, which is the clearest edge here. Shinko Star has drawn barrier 3 to get a soft run, helping position chances. The main thing to watch: this is a first-up run after a spell with no established fresh record, so reaction to the break is uncertain.
Shangri La Rose🔧 Cross-over nose band first time, tongue tie first time.
J: Rachel King · T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
Shangri La Rose carries the significant advantage of Rachel King, whose 53% above-expectation strike rate across her last 100 rides is the standout positive. The main watch point is that this is a first run back from a spell with no established first-up record yet, so freshness and readiness to run remain untested.
Monocru
J: Adam Farragher · T: C Maher
Monocru resumes today with a reliable fresh record—placed in 2 of 3 first-up runs—which is the main structural support here. Recent speed shows strength and the horse rates in a solid class, but recent form is a genuine concern that tempers the case. The key thing to watch is whether the freshness advantage can overcome the form dip.
Majestic Legend
J: Jason Collett · T: L J Bridge
Majestic Legend has the L J Bridge and Jason Collett partnership in the saddle, a combination striking at 47% above expectation across their last 100 runners, which is a genuine edge in the execution department. The horse comes to this race fresh and fit, a strength in its favour. However, recent form is flagged as a concern—the case leans on the quality of the training and riding rather than demonstrated recent speed. Watch whether the freshness translates to a competitive performance given the softer recent record.
Radicals⏱️ Trialled well🔧 Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time.
J: Kerrin Mc Evoy · T: Joseph Pride
Radicals resumes today off a sharp barrier trial where it finished 3rd, beaten only a length, suggesting the horse is forward enough in its preparation. Kerrin McEvoy is in form, riding 23% above expectation across his last 100 rides, which is a genuine plus for any runner. The main thing to watch is that this is a first-up run and the horse has no prior record at that level—early-season freshness can cut both ways.
Rising Revolution🔧 Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time, lugging bit first time.
J: · T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
Rising Revolution's case leans on recent form strength, though fitness is a concern given time away. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 8 of 9, which will need to be overcome in the run.
Lady Invictus⏱️ Trialled well🔧 Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time, tongue control bit off first time.
J: Regan Bayliss · T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
Lady Invictus resumes from a winning barrier trial, taking a 3.5-length margin into the race as a freshened horse—a solid sign of readiness. However, the case is shadowed by three concerns: class questions, uncertainty around peak fitness after the break, and recent form that doesn't stand out. Barrier 8 of 9 is the main thing to watch, as it will demand early work to find a midfield spot.