Elite Sand & Soil (Bm64)

Prinzerro has the support of in-form jockey Kerrin McEvoy, who is riding 23% above expectation across his last 100 rides, and draws barrier 1 to get a soft run. However, the horse is resuming today with a 0-for-6 record first-up and usually needs a run to hit its straps. First-time winkers go on today — that's the main thing to watch.

Lady Shenanigans has barrier 2 to work with and is proven at Hawkesbury over 1100m with 1 win from 12 starts there, which forms the backbone of the case. The concern is recent form and the fact she's resuming today with a poor first-up record (0 from 4), though she does tend to strike in her second start of a prep (1 from 4). The main thing to watch is how she comes back on debut—the soft draw helps, but first-up form is the real question mark here.

Divine Vicky resumes today with a strong fresh record of 2 wins from 4 starts first-up, and barrier 3 offers a soft run in running. The case leans on that proven ability to fire on return and a favourable draw, though class and weight merit close attention before declaring conviction.

Clifton Springs has a proven record at Hawkesbury with 1 win from 3 starts there, which forms the backbone of the case here. Recent speed marks are a strength, though the horse carries concerns around both recent form and class — those are the headwinds to monitor through the run. Watch whether it can reproduce that Hawkesbury comfort on the day.

Still Alice resumes today and has a reliable fresh record, with placings in 3 of 4 first-up runs — that's a concrete strength to lean on. Weight sits as a help to the case. The concern is recent form, which softens the picture; watch whether that's just ring rust or something deeper given the layoff. No standout speed figure on file, so the race will turn on how she settles and whether the fresh-up placing record holds.

Gogmagog has posted among the quickest recent time figures in the field at 8.8s under track par, and the Ms K Gavenlock/Mollie Fitzgerald combination is striking 91% above expectation across their last 100 runs — both solid form signals. The horse also holds a 1-win record from 3 starts at Hawkesbury, which suits. However, recent form is flagged as a concern, and that's the main thing to watch before committing.

Gandalf returns to racing today with genuine first-up credentials: 1 win from 2 starts fresh and a sharp barrier trial (2nd, half a length) suggest readiness. The horse has won 1 from 2 at Hawkesbury over 1100m, giving it proven form at today's venue and distance. Brad Widdup is running 50% above expectation across his last 100 runners, lending confidence in the stable's current form. Weight is the main thing to watch as the race takes shape.

Magnolia Jewel won last start by half a length at Port Macquarie and holds a proven record at the trip with 2 wins from 6 starts over 1100m. The case leans on that recent speed and the trainer–jockey combination of Bartley and Llewellyn, who are striking 165% above expectation across their last 100 runners. The main thing to watch is that this horse is resuming today and has yet to win first-up from 4 attempts, usually needing a run to hit its straps.

Midnight Dream owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, clocking 9.5 seconds under track par—a concrete speed edge. The Paul Clisby/Jacob Stiff combination is firing well above the odds, striking at 261% of expectation over their last 100 runs, which counts as genuine form momentum. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 10 draw, which will demand a sharp start and some tactical luck to overcome that speed advantage.