Geelong And Coastal Hire (Bm62)

Thurmond has won 2 of 3 starts at this 2418m trip and was placed last start beaten only 2 lengths, showing he's currently in form over the distance. Barrier 1 should allow him to secure a soft run in the race. The main watch point is his first-up record: he's yet to win from 4 resumptions and typically needs a run to get going, so early racecourse fitness may be the deciding factor.

Shultzy owns the quickest recent time figure in the field and has a proven track record at Geelong with 2 wins from 6 starts there, which are the concrete strengths here. The barrier draw (2) is a genuine advantage for getting a soft run, and the return to blinkers suggests the trainer sees room to sharpen the horse up. The main thing to watch is the first-up puzzle: it's winless from 8 attempts fresh but has struck twice when given a run (2 wins from 8 starts second-up), so whether it can break that pattern matters.

Adjudicate has drawn barrier 3, which should allow a soft run in running. However, the case for backing this horse is thin: there's no standout speed figure to build on, recent form data is absent, and class sits as a concern. The main thing to watch is whether the inside draw can be converted into meaningful advantage, but without concrete recent form or speed credentials to point to, this is a risky proposition.

The case here rests on first-time blinkers — a sharpening device applied to focus effort — but recent form and recent speed both register as concerns, and the horse faces a class step that warrants caution. Watch whether the blinkers unlock a tangible improvement, as that's the only concrete lever that could shift the outlook on the day.

Lightning Flash is resuming today with a poor first-up record (0 from 6) but has shown it can win when brought back a second time (1 win from 6 starts second-up). The case is hampered by weight concerns and a class question mark. The main thing to watch is whether the horse can break its troublesome first-up pattern or whether you need to wait for a second run to see its best.

Flashlight has a proven record at the trip with 2 wins from 4 starts over 2418m, a solid foundation for today's assignment. The case leans on two in-form professionals: Brad Rawiller is riding 65% above expectation across his last 100 rides, and trainer Patrick Payne is running 31% above expectation across his last 100 runners — both are performing well above baseline. Watch the weight impost and market strength, as these are the main variables that could swing the outlook either way.

Dealt is resuming after a break and has a strong fresh record of 1 win from 2 starts first-up, which is the main positive here. The horse was placed last start, beaten only 3 lengths, so it's racing in form going into today. The case leans on that recent placing and proven ability to fire fresh, though recent speed figures offer no standout strength and class concerns linger—watch whether Dealt can reproduce that first-up edge against the field it faces.

What A Cross brings among the quickest recent time figures in the field, and is trained and ridden by a combo—A & J Williams with Will Gordon—striking 38% above expectation over their last 100 runners. The main watch is the first-up question: the horse is winless from 3 resumptions but has won once from 3 starts when stepping into a prep, so fitness and how it handles fresh ground will be decisive.

Triora is racing in form, having been placed last start and beaten only 2 lengths, which suggests current fitness and competitive readiness. The main concern is that this is a first-up attempt after time away — the horse is yet to win from 3 previous resumptions and typically needs a run to peak. Barrier and weight are also noted as concerns for today's assignment. Watch whether first-time winkers help offset the fitness question, but the first-up record is the key thing to monitor.

Tsitsipas has a proven record at the trip, winning 2 of 5 starts over 2418m, which is the main positive in the case. However, the barrier draw is a legitimate concern, and the class of this field or relative market standing also warrants caution — these are the key things to watch before committing.

Jenny The Beaver has won 1 from 2 at Geelong over 2418m, a genuine strength at this track and distance. However, the barrier is a concern and recent form is the main rating driver here. The key watch: the horse is resuming today and has yet to win first-up from 4 attempts, typically needing a run to find top form.

Tulchan resumes today with Annie Alexander and Cian Macredmond in the sulky—a proven pairing striking at 609% above expectation over their last 100 starts, which is the strongest foundation here. However, the case is undermined by concern around the barrier, class level, recent speed figures, and recent form, all flagged as concerns. The critical watch: Tulchan is yet to win first-up from 3 attempts and usually needs a run to hit peak, so early pace and how it settles will matter more than usual today.