Hahn 3.5 Showcase Super Mdn Plate

Boncapo has a jockey booking that stands out: Jacob Stiff is riding 34% above expectation across his last 100 rides, which is genuine form in the saddle. Drawn in barrier 1, the horse should be able to get a soft run through the race, a practical advantage in a field. The main thing to watch is the weight — this is the trade-off in the case, so monitor how it compares to rivals on the day.

Avignon has recent speed as a strength, but recent form and class represent material concerns that limit the rating. The draw at barrier 3 offers a practical advantage—a soft run is on the cards. The main thing to watch is whether the recent form concern proves temporary or structural.

Sibeila has the significant advantage of being partnered with the Ms M Harrison and Clayton Gallagher combination, which has struck 53% above expectation over their last 100 runners—a concrete edge in execution. However, the case leans on recent speed, which shows strength, while recent form presents a concern that needs watching; class and market positioning also raise questions. The main thing to monitor is whether recent form concerns prove temporary or reflect a genuine dip in this horse's competitive level.

Italus is resuming from a spell with no established first-up record to lean on, making this an open question. There are no standout speed figures or rating drivers in the form; the case rests entirely on what it shows in the parade ring and the early pace. Watch how it settles in the first few furlongs—horses returning from a break often need a run to find their feet, so monitor whether it shows the zip expected or labours in early.

River Of Raine has recent speed as a genuine positive, but recent form and class positioning are legitimate concerns that temper the case. The main engine here is the Troy McCarney/Liam Blanch partnership, who have struck 438% above expectation across their last 100 runs together — a rare and substantial edge. A gear change also supports the prospect. The critical thing to watch is whether recent form weakness reverses; if it doesn't, the trainer-jockey strike rate alone won't be enough to carry the day.

Seditio has the support of jockey Gabrielle Johnston, who is running 21% above expectation across her last 100 rides, which counts as a concrete edge in the saddle. The main thing to watch is how the horse handles its first run back from a spell, as there's no established first-up record to lean on.

Uno Fred has posted among the quickest recent time figures in the field, running 7.5 seconds under track par, which is the concrete speed case for support. Class concerns and weight assignments are working against the horse, so the main thing to watch is whether that raw recent speed translates at this level and carrying assignment.

Toke rates on the back of recent form and a hot jockey hand. The horse placed last start beaten only 3.5L, showing it's racing competitively, while Jean Van Overmeire is riding 42% above expectation across his last 100 rides — a strong indicator of current accuracy. Weight is a concern to monitor, and recent speed figures don't stand out, so the case leans on form consistency and the jockey's hot streak rather than eye-catching pace.

Northern Exposure resumes today with a solid fresh record (placed 2 of 3 first-up) and comes to this race in form, having been placed last start and beaten only 1 length. The case leans on recent speed and a gear change working in its favour. Weight is a concern to monitor through the betting market moves.

Trainer G D Lunn is running 26% above expectation across his last 100 runners, which is the main engine behind this horse's rating. Recent form and recent speed are both solid, but weight and class are working against the case here—those are the real friction points to monitor. The lack of a standout speed figure is the key thing to watch going in.

Above Board has the benefit of in-form jockey Winona Costin, who is riding 24% above expectation across her last 100 rides, which is a meaningful edge. However, the case is tempered by concerns around the horse's recent form, weight assignment, and class positioning. The main thing to watch is whether recent form improves and the weight proves manageable at the track and trip.

Ordinary Angel holds the quickest recent time figure in the field at 7.5 seconds under track par, and comes into the race on the back of a placed effort last start beaten only 5 lengths — concrete signs of racing form. The case leans on recent speed and jockey support: Kody Nestor is riding 27% above expectation across his last 100 rides. The main watch is the wide barrier 16 of 17, which will require a positive effort to overcome from the back.