Team news update: tip now Magpies in a nailbiter.
Magpies
✓10-7
Blues
8-10
Magpies - too close to call
The Read
Magpies are the clear favourites here: they're red-hot on a four-game winning run and get the MCG advantage, which counts for plenty. Both sides live in tight contests though - Collingwood's been in 10 close games this year, Carlton in 8 - so don't expect daylight. The key thing to watch is whether Collingwood can convert their form and home-ground edge into a clean win, or whether Carlton's proven ability to scrap in tight finishes drags this into a one-or-two-goal finish.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Magpies
Red-hot - riding a 5-game winning streak.
Live in tight games - 10 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Blues
Live in tight games - 8 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.