AFL Tips & Predictions - Finals Week 1

💬 FormPicks Commentary

Dockers are the clear favorites here - they're the higher-rated side, they've been bulletproof at home this year with an 11-0 record at Perth Stadium, and they're posting 99.4 points a game while giving up just 72.4 in defense. Hawks are a serious outfit sitting fourth and they win big when they get up, but they're coming off a long road trip and haven't shown they can handle the Dockers' fortress setup. Watch whether Hawks can keep it tight early, because they've been competitive in close games all year with six matches decided by two goals or less. If this gets away early though, Dockers' 36-point average winning margin suggests it'll blow out.

💬 FormPicks Commentary

Cats are the clear favourites here. They're in a purple patch with six straight wins, they've been nearly unbeatable at home this year with an 11-1 record at the MCG, and when they get rolling they put teams away convincingly, averaging a 37.7-point winning margin. Their attack is slick too, pushing 102 points a game. Blues will fancy their chances in a tight contest since nine of their matches have been decided by two goals or less, but they're coming off a shorter turnaround which could dull their edge. That's the one thing to watch - whether the Blues' quick turnaround lets the Cats take control early.

💬 FormPicks Commentary

The Swans are playing the better footy right now, matching the Lions' three-game tear with a five-game streak of their own, and they've got the SCG working hard in their favour with an 11-1 home record this season. Both sides are scoring heavily, so this won't be a grind, but the Lions' higher ladder position and proven ability to win by nearly 45 points on average keeps this honest. Watch whether the Swans can hold their fortress advantage when up against a top-four outfit that's clearly built to travel.

💬 FormPicks Commentary

Adelaide's fortress mentality at home (9-3) gives them a genuine edge here, especially given their habit of turning wins into blowouts when they get on top (32.1-point average margin). The Crows are the fresher side and higher-rated overall, which matters in a game where quick legs could prove decisive. The key to watch is whether the Bulldogs' shorter turnaround allows the Crows to control the tempo early, because both sides thrive in close contests and the Dogs have shown they can hang around in tight finishes.