Team news update: tip now Cats by around 22.
Cats
✓10-8
Saints
8-10
Cats by around 22
The Read
Geelong's home fortress is the story here - 8-1 at Kardinia Park this season is a serious edge, and that should carry them despite a rough three-game losing patch. When the Cats get up, they tend to blow teams away (averaging 39.4 points), which suits a home crowd that's backing them in. The real watch is whether St Kilda can steal this as a tight affair - they've shown they thrive in two-goal contests, and if they keep it close they've got a genuine chance to upset a wounded favourite.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Cats
Fortress at home - 9-1 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 98.1 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 38.2 points the average winning margin.
Poor travellers - just 1-7 away from home.
Live in tight games - 6 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Saints
When they win, they win big - 35.4 points the average winning margin.
Live in tight games - 5 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.