Team news update: tip now Demons by around 18.
Kangaroos
8-10
Demons
✓12-6
Demons by around 18
The Read
Melbourne's the better side on paper and they've been nearly bulletproof at Docklands this year, sitting 7-1 at home. That scoreboard edge should tell you something. North are genuinely poor away from Arden Street - just 2-6 on the road - which is the real killer here. The wrinkle is that North live in tight contests, with seven of their games decided by two goals or less, so even if the Demons dominate they could still let this slip inside the final siren. Watch whether Melbourne can build and hold a buffer, because if this gets within a goal late, North's close-game nous suddenly looks dangerous.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Kangaroos
Out of sorts - on a 3-game losing run.
Poor travellers - just 2-6 away from home.
Live in tight games - 7 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Demons
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Fortress at home - 7-1 on their own deck this season.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.