Team news update: tip now Swans by under two goals (was Crows).
Swans
13-5
Crows
✓12-6
Swans - too close to call
The Read
The Swans are playing lights-out footy at the SCG - 9-0 at home with a potent attack averaging 107 points a game - and that fortress edge should count for plenty against a travelling Crows side. Adelaide's defence is stingy (78.2 conceded per game), but Sydney's scoreboard dominance (131% and climbing) and habit of winning by an average 43 points when they get up suggests the home team should have the wood on this one. The key thing to watch: Adelaide's proven knack for living in tight contests - 7 of their wins have come down to two goals or less, and if they can wrestle this into a slog, they're absolutely a live chance.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Swans
Fortress at home - 9-1 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 105.3 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 43 points the average winning margin.
Top-four side - sitting 2nd on the ladder.
Live in tight games - 4 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Crows
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Miserly defence - conceding just 77.8 points a game.
Fortress at home - 7-2 on their own deck this season.
Live in tight games - 7 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.