Power
6-12
Dockers
✓16-2
Dockers in a blowout (46+)
The Read
Fremantle's the pick here despite heading to Adelaide. The Dockers are a genuine outfit - they're averaging nearly 100 points a game with a stingy defence that's conceding under 70, and they've been flawless at home this year. Power get the ground advantage and they can win big when it clicks, but they're a basket case away from home at 2-6, and when Freo wins they tend to win even bigger than Port does. The key watch is whether Power can stay tight early and keep it close - they've shown they live in tight contests, but Fremantle's scoreboard output and defensive chops suggest they've got this covered.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Power
When they win, they win big - 31.3 points the average winning margin.
Poor travellers - just 2-6 away from home.
Live in tight games - 6 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Long season - 15th on the ladder.
Dockers
Miserly defence - conceding just 70.2 points a game.
Fortress at home - 8-0 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 99.6 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 35.1 points the average winning margin.
Dominant on the scoreboard - 142% and climbing.
Live in tight games - 5 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.