Team news update: tip now Lions in a blowout (48+).
Eagles
4-14
Lions
✓12-6
Lions in a blowout (48+)
The Read
The Lions are clear favourites despite the away trip to Perth. Brisbane's on a five-game tear with potent attack averaging 107.2 points, while West Coast are in freefall - five straight losses, leaky defence at 100.5 a game, and they're genuinely terrible away from home at 1-8. When the Lions win they're winning by nearly 42 points on average, which is the scoreboard profile you want in this matchup. The Eagles do live in tight contests, so if they can keep this scrappy and within two goals, they've got a genuine sniff - that's the one thing that could derail the Lions here.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Eagles
Out of sorts - on a 6-game losing run.
Poor travellers - just 1-8 away from home.
Leaky at the back - shipping 100.1 points a game.
Live in tight games - 5 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Stuttering up forward - only 72.2 points a game.
Long season - 16th on the ladder.
Lions
Red-hot - riding a 6-game winning streak.
Potent attack - banging on 106.4 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 40.4 points the average winning margin.
Top-four side - sitting 4th on the ladder.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.