Team news update: tip now Crows by under two goals.
Crows
12-7
Magpies
✓11-7
Crows - too close to call
The Read
The Crows have genuine form on their side, sitting third in wins and building nicely with three straight up. Their defence is genuinely stingy at 77.8 points a game, and Adelaide Oval has been a fortress with a 7-2 record there this season. Collingwood's five-game streak is nothing to sneeze at, but the Magpies are the road team here and that's a real disadvantage. This one should favour the Crows at home, though both clubs thrive in tight finishes, so expect it to be close late. The thing to watch is whether Collingwood's momentum can override the home ground edge.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Crows
Live in tight games - 7 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Magpies
Red-hot - riding a 6-game winning streak.
Live in tight games - 10 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.