Team-list/conditions update: tip now Dolphins by around 5.
Dolphins
✓11-7
Cowboys
10-8
Dolphins by around 5
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Dolphins are the clear favourites here, backed by home advantage and a higher rating, but this won't be a walkover. The real edge sits with their finishing power - they outscore opponents by 6.7 points after the break on average, which is a genuine asset in tight contests. Cowboys, though, have ice in the clutch and have won 4 of their last 5 one-score games, so if this stays close late, expect them to fancy their chances. Watch whether the Dolphins can convert their second-half dominance into a winning margin, because Cowboys thrive in the moments that matter most.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, venue, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Team news & line-ups
Dolphins: full-strength side named.
Cowboys - out
- Thomas Mikaele · Prop−1.8
Dolphins
- 1Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
- 2Jamayne Isaako
- 4Herbie Farnworth
- 5Selwyn Cobbo
- 6Kodi Nikorima (c)
- 7Bradley Schneider
- 8Thomas Flegler
- 9Jeremy Marshall-King
- 10Francis Molo
- 11Connelly Lemuelu
- 12Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
- 13Morgan Knowles
Interchange
- 14Kurt Donoghoe
- 15Max Plath
- 16Tom Gilbert (c)
- 17Felise Kaufusi
Cowboys
- 1Scott Drinkwater
- 2Braidon Burns
- 3Zac Laybutt
- 4Tom Chester
- 5Murray Taulagi
- 6Jaxon Purdue
- 7Jake Clifford
- 8Griffin Neame
- 9Reed Mahoney
- 10Jason Taumalolo
- 11Heilum Luki
- 12Jeremiah Nanai
- 13Reuben Cotter (c)
Interchange
- 14Soni Luke
- 16Matthew Lodge
- 17Coen Hess
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Dolphins
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 7.3 points after half-time on average.
Handle the wet - 3 from 5 in rain or heavy conditions.
Cowboys
Ice in the clutch - 4 of 5 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.