Raiders
✓8-10
Rabbitohs
9-8
Rabbitohs - too close to call
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This shapes as a genuine coin-flip, but the Rabbitohs have the edge where it matters most - they're a better second-half team and they finish close games. The Raiders will fancy their chances at home and they've shown ice in tight finishes, but Souths' pattern of outscoring opponents after the break is a real weapon, especially given Canberra's known fade in that period. Watch whether the Raiders can stay ahead at half-time, because once Souths get their teeth into the second 40, their finishing pedigree will be hard to shake.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, venue, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Team news & line-ups
Raiders
- 1Kaeo Weekes
- 2Jed Stuart
- 3Simi Sasagi
- 4Matthew Timoko
- 5Xavier Savage
- 6Ethan Strange
- 7Ethan Sanders
- 8Corey Horsburgh
- 9Owen Pattie
- 10Joseph Tapine (c)
- 11Hudson Young
- 12Noah Martin
- 13Zac Hosking
Interchange
- 14Tom Starling
- 15Ata Mariota
- 16Josh Papalii
- 17Daine Laurie
Rabbitohs
- 1Matthew Dufty
- 2Alex Johnston
- 3Tallis Duncan
- 4Jack Wighton
- 5Campbell Graham
- 6Cody Walker
- 7Ashton Ward
- 8Tevita Tatola
- 9Brandon Smith
- 10Keaon Koloamatangi
- 11David Fifita
- 12Euan Aitken
- 13Cameron Murray (c)
Interchange
- 14Jye Gray
- 15Lachlan Hubner
- 16Liam Le Blanc
- 17Jamie Humphreys
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Raiders
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Ice in the clutch - 3 of 5 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Tend to fade - conceding 5.6 more points than they score in second halves.
Rabbitohs
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 4.2 points after half-time on average.
Fortress at home - 6-2 on their own deck this season.
Handle the wet - 2 from 3 in rain or heavy conditions.
Poor travellers - only 3-6 away from home.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.