Team-list/conditions update: tip now Sharks by around 3.
Sharks
✓11-6
Knights
11-7
Sharks by around 3
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Sharks are the clear favourites here, with everything pointing their way: they're the higher-rated team, they've got home advantage at a fortress where they're 6-2, and they've established a pattern of dominating the scoreboard early and late in matches. They average a 4.1-point first-half lead and outscore opponents by 3.6 points after the break, which is a potent combination. The one genuine threat to that edge is Newcastle's proven ability to win tight games - they've taken five of their last seven matches decided by six points or less - so if this stays close down the stretch, the Knights have the temperament to steal it.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, venue, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Team news & line-ups
Sharks - out
- Jesse Ramien · Centre−1.4
Knights: full-strength side named.
Sharks
- 1William Kennedy
- 2Sione Katoa
- 4KL Iro
- 5Ronaldo Mulitalo
- 6Braydon Trindall
- 7Nicho Hynes
- 8Addin Fonua-Blake
- 9Blayke Brailey (c)
- 10Thomas Hazelton
- 11Briton Nikora
- 12Teig Wilton
- 13Cameron McInnes (c)
Interchange
- 14Hohepa Puru
- 16Billy Burns
- 17Oregon Kaufusi
Knights
- 1Kalyn Ponga (c)
- 2Dominic Young
- 3Dane Gagai
- 4Bradman Best
- 5Greg Marzhew
- 6Fletcher Sharpe
- 7Dylan Brown
- 8Tyson Frizell
- 9Phoenix Crossland
- 10Trey Mooney
- 11Dylan Lucas
- 12Francis Manuleleua
- 13Mat Croker
Interchange
- 14Sandon Smith
- 15Lachlan Crouch
- 16Thomas Cant
- 17Brodie Jones
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Sharks
Ice in the clutch - 3 of 3 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 3.4 points after half-time on average.
Fast starters - average a 4-point first-half lead (14.7 pts a half).
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Fortress at home - 7-2 on their own deck this season.
Knights
Handle the wet - 2 from 2 in rain or heavy conditions.
Ice in the clutch - 5 of 8 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Fortress at home - 7-2 on their own deck this season.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.