Team-list/conditions update: tip now Warriors comfortably (18+).
Warriors
✓12-5
Dragons
2-15
Warriors comfortably (18+)
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Warriors have a clear edge here: they're the higher-rated side at home against a Dragons outfit that's 1-8 away, and the scoreboard tends to play in Wellington's favour. The Warriors are fast starters (averaging a 4.1-point lead at half-time) while the Dragons are notoriously slow out of the blocks and fade badly in the second half, getting outscored by 9.3 points a half after the break. The key thing to watch is whether this stays competitive - both sides are fragile in tight finishes, so if the Dragons find their way back into it late, don't be confident.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, venue, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Team news & line-ups
Warriors
- 1Taine Tuaupiki
- 2Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
- 3Ali Leiataua
- 4Adam Pompey
- 5Alofiana Khan-Pereira
- 6Chanel Harris-Tavita
- 7Te Maire Martin
- 8James Fisher-Harris (c)
- 9Wayde Egan
- 10Mitchell Barnett (c)
- 11Kurt Capewell
- 12Jacob Laban
- 13Erin Clark
Interchange
- 14Sam Healey
- 15Tanner Stowers-Smith
- 16Demitric Vaimauga
- 17Leka Halasima
Dragons
- 1Clinton Gutherson
- 2Setu Tu
- 3Mathew Feagai
- 4Valentine Holmes
- 5Tyrell Sloan
- 6Daniel Atkinson
- 7Kyle Flanagan
- 8Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga
- 9Damien Cook (c)
- 10Toby Couchman
- 11Dylan Egan
- 12Hamish Stewart
- 13Ryan Couchman
Interchange
- 14Jacob Liddle
- 15Luciano Leilua
- 16Josh Kerr
- 17Jacob Halangahu
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Warriors
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 8.1 points after half-time on average.
Handle the wet - 2 from 2 in rain or heavy conditions.
Fast starters - average a 3.8-point first-half lead (13.8 pts a half).
Miserly defence - conceding just 16.9 points a game.
Fortress at home - 7-2 on their own deck this season.
Shaky in tight finishes - just 1 of 4 one-score games won.
Dragons
Tend to fade - conceding 9.4 more points than they score in second halves.
Slow out of the blocks - outscored by 5.2 points a half before the break.
Poor travellers - only 1-9 away from home.
Shaky in tight finishes - just 1 of 3 one-score games won.
Leaky at the back - shipping 29.6 points a game.
Struggle in the wet - only 0 of 3 won in greasy conditions.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.