Vale Frank Black (Bm56+)

Passion Prince resumes today with a positive first-up record (1 from 6) and the Jacquelyn Scott/Jordan Turner combination has struck 57% above expectation over their last 100 rides, which is the main strength here. Barrier 1 should allow the horse to find a soft run in the race. However, recent form is a concern, this represents a class move up, and the overall class positioning raises questions worth monitoring closely.

Ironclad Boy resumes today with a first-up record of 1 from 4, though the horse does run well fresh. The Black/O'Donnell combination is striking 83% above expectation across their last 100 runners, a genuine edge in the yard's performance. Last start the horse was placed and beaten only half a length, so recent form is sharp. Barrier 3 offers a soft run setup. The main watch: this represents a class move up, which sits as a concern against the recent placed form and trainer/jockey strike rate.

On Just Terms has trainer form working in its favour, but recent form and a class move up present genuine concerns, while recent speed figures offer nothing standout to build on. The horse has two wins from six starts at the 1400m trip, which suits, but the main watch is its first-up resumption: it has never won on return from a break (0 from 3), though it does strike once into a prep (1 win from 3 starts second-up), so improvement should come if backed a second time rather than today.

Blowin' Smoke is resuming after a break, which is the main thing to watch given it hasn't won first-up from 3 attempts and usually needs a run to find its feet. The positive here is the Malcolm Mackenzie and Sharni Webster combination, who are striking 93% above expectation over their last 100 rides together, suggesting they extract value from their mounts. The concern is a class move, which typically makes winning harder. The case leans on the trainer-jockey synergy, but the fitness question and tougher assignment need close consideration.

Lordgivemestrength is resuming today after time away, and the horse has yet to win on first-up from 4 attempts, typically needing a run to find top form. The case against backing is straightforward: trainer form is a concern, recent form has been patchy, the class level of today's race represents a step up, and the barrier assigned is unfavourable. The main thing to watch is how the horse handles the comeback - a bright start would suggest it has trained on well, but first-up form tells a cautionary tale here.

Soaring Solo resumes today with a record of 1 from 6 at first-up, though that's a modest baseline. The real support comes from the Cliff Howe and Jefferson Tsang combination, who are striking 31% above expectation across their last 100 runners, suggesting competent horsemanship. The case leans on that proven trainer-jockey strike rate and the horse running acceptably fresh. Watch the class shift in this assignment, recent form concerns, and barrier draw, as these represent the main obstacles to backing confidence.

Shabalala has a solid record at Carnarvon over this trip with 1 win from 2 starts, and resuming today after a break puts it in a window where it has placed in 1 of 6 first-up runs. The main concern is a class move up alongside recent form queries, so the case here leans on track and trip familiarity plus the fresh-run angle rather than momentum. Watch the wide barrier 12 of 13 as the key obstacle to overcome in the run.