Bundaberg · Race 5
Lindsay Australia Limited Bundaberg Cup
1380m · Soft 6 (est.) · $30,000
Our Pick
Aces Up
Won last two starts. In career-best form right now.
Resuming after a break. Needs a run, winless first-up from 4.
Unproven in the wet. No wins on soft from 3 attempts.
The Read
Aces Up is in career-best form, having won each of the last two starts, which underpins the case here. The concern is that it resumes today after a break, with a record of 0 wins from 4 first-up attempts, meaning it usually needs a run to find top gear. Watch closely whether the wet track - the horse is yet to win on soft from 3 attempts - becomes a limiting factor in today's conditions.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Show 11 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Desiah vs I See You Coming
Desiah finished 1st to 3rd at Bundaberg last month, a length clear.
Frosty Bear vs Boom Boom Bella
Frosty Bear finished 2nd to 4th at Gladstone last month, 3.7 lengths clear.
Frosty Bear vs Heat
Frosty Bear finished 2nd to 3rd at Gladstone last month, 4.4 lengths clear.
Heat vs Boom Boom Bella
Heat finished 3rd to 4th at Gladstone last month, half a length clear.
Heat vs I See You Coming
Heat finished 5th to 7th at Gympie 3 months ago, 5.3 lengths clear.
Liberty Steps vs Rapid Dude
Liberty Steps finished 2nd to 6th at Sunshine Coast 6 months ago, 6.9 lengths clear.
Moissanite vs Boom Boom Bella
Moissanite finished 2nd to 9th at Rockhampton two months ago, 5.1 lengths clear.
Moissanite vs Villaden
Moissanite finished 2nd to 8th at Thangool 3 months ago, 4.4 lengths clear.
Sea Commits vs Heat
Sea Commits finished 3rd to 5th at Gympie 3 months ago, 4.1 lengths clear.
Sea Commits vs I See You Coming
Sea Commits finished 3rd to 7th at Gympie 3 months ago, 9.4 lengths clear.
Villaden vs Sea Commits
Villaden finished 5th to 10th at Nanango two months ago, 5.7 lengths clear.
Moissanite
9J: Adam Spinks · T: G J Clem
Won last two starts. Currently in career-best form.
One win from two at Bundaberg over 1380m. Proven here.
Resuming today. Winless first-up but strikes second-up into prep.
The Read
Moissanite comes to the races in career-best form, having won the last two starts, and holds a strong record at Bundaberg over this 1380m trip with 1 win from 2 attempts. The case leans on recent speed and the proven track record, though a class move into this race presents a real concern. The main thing to watch is the first-up pattern: Moissanite is winless from 5 fresh starts but does strike once into a preparation, so fitness and settling will be critical today.
Villaden
7⏱️ Trialled wellJ: Emma Simsir · T: R T Hay
Resuming today off eye-catching barrier trial, 2nd beaten half length.
Among quickest recent time figures in field, 1.4s under average.
Suited at trip: 4 wins from 9 starts over 1380m.
R T Hay/Emma Simsir combo striking 59% above expectation last 100.
Placed last start beaten half a length, racing in form.
The Read
Villaden resumes today off a sharp barrier trial (2nd, half a length) and carries the RTHay/EmmaSimsir combination striking 59% above expectation over their last 100 runs, a genuine edge in the stable/jockey department. The case leans on recent speed - among the quickest time figures in the field at 1.4s under track average - plus a solid record at the trip with 4 wins from 9 starts over 1380m. Last-start placement beaten half a length shows the horse is racing in form. Main thing to watch: first-up record stands at 1 from 7, so while Villaden has shown it can run well fresh, this is the less reliable part of the profile.
Full Field
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Frosty Bear
J: Shakira Bailey · T: G J Clem
Frosty Bear has a solid fresh record with 4 placings from 6 first-up runs, and knows Bundaberg well with 2 wins from 6 starts at the track. Barrier 1 gives it a genuine soft run into the race. The main watch is its wet-track form: unproven in the soft with 0 wins from 8 attempts on soft surfaces, so track conditions will be critical to its chances.
Sea Commits
J: Sophie Wilcock · T: Kym Afford
Sea Commits has a reliable fresh record with 4 placings from 5 first-up attempts, which is the main positive here. However, the rating is held back by three material concerns: the move to this class represents a step up, recent form has been patchy, and the jockey is not in strong current form. The case rests on whether the horse's proven ability to run well fresh can overcome the class rise and recent inconsistency.
Full Strength
J: Minonette Kennedy · T: Belinda Mair
Full Strength owns the quickest recent time figure in the field at 1.5s under the track average, which is the standout concrete edge here. The horse is suited at the trip with 1 win from 3 starts over 1380m. The main caution is that it's resuming today and has yet to win first-up from 3 attempts, usually needing a run to peak. Also watch the track conditions: Full Strength is unproven in the wet and has failed to win on soft from 4 tries, which matters if the surface is bottomless.
Aces UpTOP PICK
J: Stephanie Tierney · T: Kym Afford
Aces Up is in career-best form, having won each of the last two starts, which underpins the case here. The concern is that it resumes today after a break, with a record of 0 wins from 4 first-up attempts, meaning it usually needs a run to find top gear. Watch closely whether the wet track - the horse is yet to win on soft from 3 attempts - becomes a limiting factor in today's conditions.
Villaden🎯 Next Best⏱️ Trialled well
J: Emma Simsir · T: R T Hay
Villaden resumes today off a sharp barrier trial (2nd, half a length) and carries the RTHay/EmmaSimsir combination striking 59% above expectation over their last 100 runs, a genuine edge in the stable/jockey department. The case leans on recent speed - among the quickest time figures in the field at 1.4s under track average - plus a solid record at the trip with 4 wins from 9 starts over 1380m. Last-start placement beaten half a length shows the horse is racing in form. Main thing to watch: first-up record stands at 1 from 7, so while Villaden has shown it can run well fresh, this is the less reliable part of the profile.
Boom Boom Bella
J: Matthew Powell · T: Ms L Petersen
Boom Boom Bella is resuming today after a break, and that's the main thing to watch: the horse has yet to win first-up from 5 attempts and usually needs a run to find peak form. The case against is straightforward - the trainer is in poor form, the jockey is struggling with winners, the horse is stepping up in class, and it's carrying weight that looks like a burden relative to the field. These four concerns stack enough to make this a difficult proposition on the day.
Moissanite⚔️ Danger
J: Adam Spinks · T: G J Clem
Moissanite comes to the races in career-best form, having won the last two starts, and holds a strong record at Bundaberg over this 1380m trip with 1 win from 2 attempts. The case leans on recent speed and the proven track record, though a class move into this race presents a real concern. The main thing to watch is the first-up pattern: Moissanite is winless from 5 fresh starts but does strike once into a preparation, so fitness and settling will be critical today.
Heat
J: Kayla Johnston · T: D W Gardiner
Heat has won 3 of its last 4 starts at Bundaberg over this exact 1380m trip, which is a concrete strength in familiar territory. The Gardiner/Johnston trainer-jockey combination is striking 48% above expectation across their last 100 runners, a significant edge in execution. The horse was placed last start beaten only 5 lengths and is clearly racing in form. The main watch: Heat resumes today and has yet to win first-up from 5 attempts, usually requiring a run to peak, and it will need to overcome a wide barrier 11 of 12.