ATC Thank You Owners (Bm78)

Iron Man's case leans on a strong fresh record (5 of 6 placings first-up) and the Osland/Bullock combination striking 43% above expectation over their last 100 runs, with barrier 1 likely to deliver the soft run needed. Recent form and class positioning are concerns to monitor, and there is no standout speed figure in the data.

Bandi's Boy rates on recent speed, a class move up in strength, and strong trainer form, with the draw to barrier 2 offering a platform for a soft run in transit. The concerning angle is the class/market shift, which warrants attention. Watch the first-up placement: the horse has failed to win from five resumptions but has struck twice from four starts when sent out second-up, so how it settles early will be key to whether it can break through today.

High Blue Sea resumes today with a solid record of 4 wins from 7 first-up starts, suggesting it handles a break well. The case leans on a class move and the trainer's current form as the primary strengths. The horse has won 3 times from 7 starts over today's 1300m trip, which suits its profile. The main thing to watch is the wet ground: it has yet to register a win from 12 attempts on soft going, so conditions will be critical.

Barbaric Lad steps up in class today with jockey Clayton Douglas, who is striking 21% above expectation across his last 100 runners, as the main strength here. The case leans on recent speed and that sharp jockey form, plus a proven soft-ground record of 2 wins from 6 starts. The main thing to watch is the first-up angle: the horse is winless from 4 resumptions but does break through once into a prep, winning 1 from 4 starts second-up, so if it runs well enough to stay close early, it may have more to give.

Felix Majestic resumes today with trainer G R Nickson in strong form, running 61% above expectation across his last 100 runners, which is the clearest edge here. The case for this horse leans on that trainer strength and a class rise that suggests the handicapper sees improvement potential. However, recent form is a concern and the first-up record is poor at 0 from 7, though the horse does tend to strike once into a prep. Watch the wet track: Felix Majestic remains unproven in the soft at 0 from 10 tries, and conditions today will be the main wildcard.

Yoshinobu rates on trainer form strength and a class move upward, with recent form being the main concern to monitor. The horse has shown it can handle soft ground (2 wins from 6 starts) and has a serviceable record when fresh (2 from 6 first-up), which matters today on return. The case leans on the stable's current form and the upward shift in class, but recent results need watching closely before committing.

Commodus brings the quickest recent time figure in the field, clocking 1.7s under the track average, and trainer Mark Sues is running 29% above expectation across his last 100 runners. The case leans on recent form, with a nose second last start and a sharp barrier trial performance, plus a proven soft-ground record of 3 wins from 9 starts. The main watch is the first-up pattern: Commodus is winless from 4 resumptions but has struck once in the second run of a prep, combined with a wide barrier 16 that will need to be overcome.