Grafton · Race 7
Advantage Pharmacy / A Bowling Painter Country Boosted (Bm58)
1700m · Soft 5 · $35,000
Our Pick
Flaming Genesis
Won 1 of 3 starts at 1700m. Distance suits this horse.
Placed last start, beaten just 2 lengths. Racing in form.
Jockey D Chujo 55% above expectation from last 100 rides.
The Read
Flaming Genesis has winning form at the trip (1 win from 3 starts over 1700m) and comes to this race off a placing beaten just 2 lengths, which suggests the horse is racing in form. Jockey D Chujo is performing well above expectation across his last 100 runners (55% above), adding a meaningful edge to the booking. The main thing to watch is the class move into this race and how the track and conditions suit on the day.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Venom Wolf
5J: Raymond Spokes · T: D L Matts
Quickest recent time figure in the field, 0.8 seconds under par.
Resuming today after a break, yet to win first-up from 4 attempts.
Usually needs a run to find peak form after time away.
The Read
Venom Wolf carries the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.8 seconds under track par, and the trainer is in strong current form. The case leans on that recent speed and the stable's strike rate as genuine positives. The main thing to watch is the resumption factor: Venom Wolf has failed to win in 4 first-up attempts and typically needs a run to find peak form, so query whether today's freshness outweighs that pattern.
Gavin
3J: Archie Mc Colm · T: Stephen & Jordan Lee
Back after a break. Placed 1 from 4 on first-up returns.
Last start placed, beaten 11 lengths. Form is solid.
Barrier 3 should give Gavin a soft, uninterrupted run.
The Read
Gavin has a decent record when resuming, with one win from four first-up runs, and comes here off a placing last start beaten 11 lengths, which shows the horse is racing in form. The jockey's recent strike rate is a strength to the case, and barrier 3 should allow a soft run in running. The main thing to watch is the class move into this race, which presents a concern given the step up in grade.
Full Field
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Sound And Vision
J: Grady Spokes · T: Ms K Owen
Sound And Vision draws barrier 1 for a soft run, which is a genuine structural advantage, but the case here carries real caution: the horse is resuming today with a poor first-up record of 0 from 11 starts, and the class move and market positioning register as concerns. The one slot of genuine form comes second-up into a prep (1 win from 11 starts), so fitness and the step up in class are the key things to watch closely.
Awarded Glory
J: Olivia Dalton · T: T M Whittington
Awarded Glory won its last start by 2L at Grafton and is resuming today with a first-up record of 1 from 2, suggesting it runs well fresh. Jockey Olivia Dalton is riding 36% above expectation across her last 100 rides, adding genuine value to the claim. Barrier 2 should allow the horse to find a soft run. The main thing to watch is how it handles any step up in class, and whether recent speed and form translate to this assignment.
Gavin🎯 Next Best
J: Archie Mc Colm · T: Stephen & Jordan Lee
Gavin has a decent record when resuming, with one win from four first-up runs, and comes here off a placing last start beaten 11 lengths, which shows the horse is racing in form. The jockey's recent strike rate is a strength to the case, and barrier 3 should allow a soft run in running. The main thing to watch is the class move into this race, which presents a concern given the step up in grade.
Tara Koda
J: Mikayla Weir · T: J D Shelton
Tara Koda is resuming today with jockey Mikayla Weir, who is riding 42% above expectation across her last 100 rides, providing a clear strength in the saddle. The main concern is a class move, which works against the case here. Watch closely that Tara Koda has yet to win first-up from 4 attempts and usually needs a run to find form.
Venom Wolf⚔️ Danger
J: Raymond Spokes · T: D L Matts
Venom Wolf carries the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.8 seconds under track par, and the trainer is in strong current form. The case leans on that recent speed and the stable's strike rate as genuine positives. The main thing to watch is the resumption factor: Venom Wolf has failed to win in 4 first-up attempts and typically needs a run to find peak form, so query whether today's freshness outweighs that pattern.
Queen Of Tayrona
J: Yvette Lewis · T: G N Nielsen
Queen Of Tayrona is resuming from a break today, and the case leans on whether it can overcome a poor first-up record: it has failed to win in 6 previous attempts fresh and typically needs a run to hit its straps. Watch closely how it handles the return to racing, as that's the key variable in play here.
Sinatra
J: Nick Heywood · T: M J Dunn
Sinatra has a solid 25% career strike rate (2 from 8 wins) and shows a positive fresh-up record with 1 from 2 placements on resumption, which supports today's return. The trainer is in strong form, a concrete strength in the horse's favour. However, recent form and recent speed are both concerns that need careful monitoring, and there is no standout speed figure to lean on. The main watch is whether those recent form concerns have been addressed during the break, as that will heavily shape the horse's chances today.
Ourlegseleven
J: Noriyuki Masuda · T: Ms S Pepper
Ourlegseleven comes up on the back of a 1L win at Ballina and resumes today with a first-up record of 2 from 4, suggesting it handles a fresh assignment well. The Ms S Pepper and Noriyuki Masuda combination is striking 105% above expectation across their last 100 runners, which is a strong endorsement of the horsemanship here. The main concern is a class move up the ladder, and recent speed figures offer no standout marker to lean on, so watch whether it can handle the step in class while fresh.
Dupont
J: Teighan Worsnop · T: D W Dwane
Dupont has trainer D W Dwane firing at 28% above expectation across the last 100 runners, which is the clearest positive here. The horse is suited at today's 1700m trip, with 1 win from 3 starts at the distance. However, the main thing to watch is that Dupont is winless from 6 first-up attempts (0 from 6), though it does have 1 win from 5 starts when second-up in a prep, so fitness and recovery from the break will be critical to monitor.
Flaming GenesisTOP PICK
J: Nozi Tomizawa · T: D Chujo
Flaming Genesis has winning form at the trip (1 win from 3 starts over 1700m) and comes to this race off a placing beaten just 2 lengths, which suggests the horse is racing in form. Jockey D Chujo is performing well above expectation across his last 100 runners (55% above), adding a meaningful edge to the booking. The main thing to watch is the class move into this race and how the track and conditions suit on the day.
Ottoman Empire
J: Jodi Worley · T: J I Herriot
Ottoman Empire has a proven winning record at Grafton over this 1700m trip (1 win from 5 starts) and shows a pattern of running well fresh with 2 placings from 9 resumptions. The Herriot and Worley combination is performing 175% above expectation over their last 100 rides, which is the most concrete edge here. The main concern to monitor is the wide barrier 16 draw, which will need to be managed in the run.