Randwick · Race 8
ATC Thank You Trainers (Bm88)
1600m · Soft 6 · $160,000
Our Pick
Narbold
Last start placed, beaten only 2 lengths, racing in form.
C J Waller training very well, 23% above expectation last 100.
Barrier 3 should allow soft run through the race.
Second-up record strong: 2 wins from 4 starts, first-up struggles: 0 from 4.
The Read
Narbold comes to this race off a placed effort beaten 2L, showing current form, and trains under C J Waller who is running 23% above expectation across his last 100 runners. Barrier 3 offers a soft run setup. The case leans on recent speed and the trainer's hot hand, but watch carefully that Narbold has never won on fresh (0 from 4 first-up) despite striking twice into a preparation (2 wins from 4 starts second-up), so fitness timing will be the key tell.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Where Narbold has met others in today's field before, and what has changed since. A starting point for your own form study.
Had a length on our pick at Randwick a fortnight ago, 1st to our pick's 3rd. That run was on a Heavy track; today is Soft.
Our pick finished a length ahead at Randwick a fortnight ago, 3rd to their 6th. Carries 1kg more relative to them this time. That run was on a Heavy track; today is Soft.
Our pick finished half a length ahead at Randwick a fortnight ago, 3rd to their 4th. That run was on a Heavy track; today is Soft.
Our pick finished 1.4 lengths ahead at Randwick a fortnight ago, 3rd to their 7th. That run was on a Heavy track; today is Soft.
Had 3.2 lengths on our pick at Rosehill last month, 6th to our pick's 11th.
Had 3.4 lengths on our pick at Rosehill last month, 5th to our pick's 11th. Carries 2.5kg more relative to them this time.
Show 28 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Bravissima vs Sky Lab
Bravissima finished 10th to 12th at Randwick last month, 5.5 lengths clear.
Hollywood Hero vs Lugh
Hollywood Hero finished 3rd to 5th at Randwick two months ago, a head clear.
Hollywood Hero vs Mickey's Medal
Hollywood Hero finished 2nd to 4th at Rosehill last month, a length clear.
Hollywood Hero vs Mighty Ulysses
Hollywood Hero finished 3rd to 7th at Randwick two months ago, half a length clear.
Hollywood Hero vs Seven's
Hollywood Hero finished 2nd to 5th at Rosehill last month, 1.3 lengths clear.
Hollywood Hero vs The Creator
Hollywood Hero finished 2nd to 6th at Rosehill last month, 1.5 lengths clear.
Lugh vs Mighty Ulysses
Lugh finished 5th to 7th at Randwick two months ago, a head clear.
Lugh vs Poison Chalice
Lugh finished 4th to 6th at Randwick a fortnight ago, a head clear.
Lugh vs Thunderlips
Lugh finished 4th to 7th at Randwick a fortnight ago, half a length clear.
Lugh vs Watcha Matey
Lugh finished 4th to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 5.3 lengths clear.
Mickey's Medal vs Lugh
Mickey's Medal finished 1st to 4th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 1.9 lengths clear.
Mickey's Medal vs Poison Chalice
Mickey's Medal finished 1st to 6th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 2.1 lengths clear.
Mickey's Medal vs Seven's
Mickey's Medal finished 4th to 5th at Rosehill last month, a nose clear.
Mickey's Medal vs The Creator
Mickey's Medal finished 4th to 6th at Rosehill last month, a head clear.
Mickey's Medal vs Thunderlips
Mickey's Medal finished 1st to 7th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 2.6 lengths clear.
Mickey's Medal vs Watcha Matey
Mickey's Medal finished 1st to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 7.2 lengths clear.
Mighty Ulysses vs Poison Chalice
Mighty Ulysses finished 8th to 12th at Randwick last month, 2.2 lengths clear.
Mighty Ulysses vs Sky Lab
Mighty Ulysses finished 6th to 7th at Randwick a fortnight ago, a nose clear.
Poison Chalice vs Seven's
Poison Chalice finished 5th to 7th at Caulfield last preparation, a head clear.
Poison Chalice vs Thunderlips
Poison Chalice finished 6th to 7th at Randwick a fortnight ago, half a length clear.
Poison Chalice vs Watcha Matey
Poison Chalice finished 6th to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 5.1 lengths clear.
Rock Empire vs Hollywood Hero
Rock Empire finished 4th to 6th at Randwick last preparation, a length clear.
Seven's vs Bravissima
Seven's finished 3rd to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 4 lengths clear.
Substantial vs Thunderlips
Substantial finished 9th to 11th at Randwick last month, a length clear.
The Creator vs Bravissima
The Creator finished 2nd to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 4.7 lengths clear.
The Creator vs Seven's
The Creator finished 2nd to 3rd at Randwick a fortnight ago, half a length clear.
Thunderlips vs Mighty Ulysses
Thunderlips finished 9th to 12th at Rosehill a fortnight ago, a length clear.
Thunderlips vs Watcha Matey
Thunderlips finished 7th to 9th at Randwick a fortnight ago, 4.6 lengths clear.
Lugh
14🔧 Winkers first time.J: Siena Grima · T: C Maher
Resuming today and excels fresh. 2 wins from 4 starts first-up.
Consistent winner with 45% career strike rate, 5 wins from 11.
In-form jockey Siena Grima riding 36% above expectation last 100 rides.
Trainer C Maher 25% above expectation across last 100 runners.
Wide barrier 14 of 15 to overcome today.
The Read
Lugh resumes today with a strong record fresh, winning 2 of 4 first-up starts, and brings a solid 45% career strike rate (5/11 wins) to the race. The case leans on recent form, with jockey Siena Grima riding 36% above expectation across her last 100 rides and trainer C Maher also 25% above expectation over the same span. The main watch is the wide barrier 14 of 15, which Lugh will need to overcome, and first-time winkers to settle today.
Mickey's Medal
2J: Mollie Fitzgerald · T: Annabel & Rob Archibald
Won last start by half a length at Randwick.
Resuming today and reliable fresh. Placed 3 of 5 first-up.
Drawn to get a soft run from barrier 2.
The Read
Mickey's Medal won last start by half a length at Randwick and has a reliable fresh record with 3 placings from 5 first-up attempts, so the case leans on recent speed and proven ability to run well off a break. Barrier 2 offers a soft run in running. The main thing to watch is whether the horse can produce that same finishing kick from a slightly different tactical setup today.
Full Field
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Electric Impulse
J: Nash Rawiller · T: Henry Dwyer
Electric Impulse carries recent speed that ranks among the field's best at 3.2 seconds under the track average, and has recorded a solid 28% strike rate across 25 starts with a sharp 3-from-7 record at this 1600m trip. Both the jockey and the class move are firing, and barrier 1 offers a soft run setup. The main watch: this is a first-up resumption after a break, and the form line reads 0 from 5 on debut but 2 wins from 5 second-up, so whether that pattern holds will define the day.
Mickey's Medal🎯 Next Best
J: Mollie Fitzgerald · T: Annabel & Rob Archibald
Mickey's Medal won last start by half a length at Randwick and has a reliable fresh record with 3 placings from 5 first-up attempts, so the case leans on recent speed and proven ability to run well off a break. Barrier 2 offers a soft run in running. The main thing to watch is whether the horse can produce that same finishing kick from a slightly different tactical setup today.
NarboldTOP PICK
J: James Mc Donald · T: C J Waller
Narbold comes to this race off a placed effort beaten 2L, showing current form, and trains under C J Waller who is running 23% above expectation across his last 100 runners. Barrier 3 offers a soft run setup. The case leans on recent speed and the trainer's hot hand, but watch carefully that Narbold has never won on fresh (0 from 4 first-up) despite striking twice into a preparation (2 wins from 4 starts second-up), so fitness timing will be the key tell.
Seven's
J: Braith Nock · T: Annabel & Rob Archibald
Seven rates on the back of a strong fresh record (2 wins from 4 first-up starts) and recent form, having been placed last start only 1.5 lengths behind. The case leans on resuming fitness and proven ability to win fresh, with racing form intact from the most recent outing. Watch whether the horse has retained that edge across the break, as is always the risk when returning to the track.
Substantial🔧 Ear muffs first time, ear muffs (pre-race only) off again.
J: Reece Jones · T: Fabio Martino
Substantial resumes today with a proven fresh record, having placed in 4 of its last 9 first-up runs, and is paired with in-form jockey Reece Jones who is riding 37% above expectation across his last 100 rides. Trainer Fabio Martino is also running hot at 24% above expectation over the same sample. The case leans on recent jockey and trainer form combined with demonstrated ability to run well fresh, though watch for whether the class of this field suits after the step up in grade.
Bravissima🔧 Winkers again.
J: Rachel King · T: Matthew Dale
Bravissima has a proven record at Randwick over this trip (1 win from 2 starts) and handles soft ground well (3 wins from 7 starts), which matters if conditions play that way. Rachel King is riding 41% above expectation across her last 100 rides, a meaningful edge in the saddle. The horse carries a solid 29% career strike rate and has form on the fresh (1 from 5 first-up), so the resumption is no red flag. The main thing to watch is the return to winkers today, which is a gear change worth noting.
Poison Chalice
J: Chad Schofield · T: Joseph Pride
Poison Chalice owns the quickest recent time figure in the field at 3.7 seconds under the track average, which signals genuine pace credentials heading into this assignment. The case leans on that recent speed combined with a proven ability to run well fresh, evidenced by 2 placings from 6 first-up runs. Watch whether the class step proves manageable, as that is the main variable attached to this profile.
Sky Lab
J: Shannen Llewellyn · T: P M Perry
Sky Lab is resuming today with a decent first-up record (3 from 10 placements), and the jockey-trainer combo of P M Perry and Shannen Llewellyn has struck 55% above expectation over their last 100 rides together. The horse has one win from 8 starts at Randwick over this 1600m trip, showing it can get the job done here. The main watch is recent form which rates as a concern, so freshness and track/trip familiarity are carrying the case more than current momentum.
Rock Empire
J: Adam Hyeronimus · T: C Maher
Rock Empire has a strong record fresh, with 2 wins from 4 resumptions, and today's return to racing suits that pattern. The horse carries a solid 31% career strike rate across 13 starts and has won 1 of 3 attempts at the 1600m trip. Trainer C Maher is operating 25% above expectation from the last 100 runners, which adds confidence in the stable's current form. The main concern is barrier position, which rates as a tactical question mark for the day.
The Creator
J: Anna Roper · T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
The Creator resumes today with a strong first-up record (1 from 6 placements) and trainer M Price has struck 112% above expectation over the last 100 runners with this jockey combination. The horse holds genuine soft-ground credentials with 5 wins from 8 starts on that surface, and its recent form shows a half-length defeat last start while maintaining a solid 28% career strike rate across 25 starts. The main watch is the barrier draw, which sits as a concern for today's assignment.
Lugh⚔️ Danger🔧 Winkers first time.
J: Siena Grima · T: C Maher
Lugh resumes today with a strong record fresh, winning 2 of 4 first-up starts, and brings a solid 45% career strike rate (5/11 wins) to the race. The case leans on recent form, with jockey Siena Grima riding 36% above expectation across her last 100 rides and trainer C Maher also 25% above expectation over the same span. The main watch is the wide barrier 14 of 15, which Lugh will need to overcome, and first-time winkers to settle today.
Thunderlips
J: Kerrin Mc Evoy · T: Bjorn Baker
Thunderlips is resuming after time out with a record of 1 win from 7 first-up starts, so freshness is a mixed picture. The case for backing it leans on solid soft-ground form with 5 wins from 13 starts on that surface, combined with a trainer in good form and a step up in class that suits the horse's recent speed. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 15 of 15, which will make the early running a genuine test.