Carnarvon · Race 4
Thanks Damien Oliver (Bm56+)
1000m · Good 3 · $20,000
Our Pick
Swexan
Won last start by 3.5L at Carnarvon. Knows track well.
Resuming today after break. Placed 2 of 2 times first-up.
Trainer and jockey combo striking 83% above expectation last 100 runs.
The Read
Swexan won last start by 3.5L at Carnarvon and is a proven fresh runner with 2 placings from 2 first-up attempts, giving solid grounding for a resumption today. The trainer/jockey combo of D E Black and Giaan O'Donnell is striking 83% above expectation from their last 100 runners, and the horse itself shows a consistent 25% career strike rate with 2 wins from 5 starts at this track. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 10 of 10, which will need to be overcome given the recent strength of form and track record.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Mars Mission
5J: Kate Pateman · T: Aaron Pateman
Quickest recent time figure in the field. 0.6s under track par.
Resuming today after time away. Placed 3 from 9 first-up runs.
Aaron Pateman and Kate Pateman combo striking 36% above expectation last 100.
The Read
Mars Mission owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.6 seconds under track par, and the Aaron Pateman / Kate Pateman combination is striking 36% above expectation across their last 100 runners. The horse has placed in 3 of 9 first-up attempts and runs well when fresh, which suits a resumption today. Watch the class shift as the main question mark, since that sits against the strength of the recent speed, trainer form, and fitness angle.
Kimberley Currency
6J: Jefferson Tsang · T: Cliff Howe
Cliff Howe and Jefferson Tsang combo striking 31% above expectation last 100.
Proven here over the trip: 1 win from 2 starts at Carnarvon 1000m.
Placed last start, beaten 1.5 lengths. Racing in form.
The Read
Kimberley Currency has won 1 of 2 starts at Carnarvon over this 1000m trip, and comes to today off a placed effort beaten just 1.5L, suggesting current racing form. The Cliff Howe and Jefferson Tsang partnership is striking 31% above expectation across their last 100 runners, a meaningful edge. The main concern is a class move up, which sits against the form, and the horse is resuming today with a poor first-up record of 0 wins from 4 attempts - it usually needs a run to show its best.
Full Field
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Cheeky Charlotte
J: Jordan Turner · T: Jacquelyn Scott
Cheeky Charlotte has winning form at Carnarvon over this 1000m trip (1 from 6 starts) and is resuming today with a solid first-up record of 2 placings from 6 attempts, suggesting it handles the fresh assignment. The Jacquelyn Scott and Jordan Turner combination has struck 57% above expectation across their last 100 rides, adding genuine edge to the stable's planning here. Barrier 1 gives the horse every chance to land a soft run in running. The main reservation is the move up in class coupled with patchy recent form and ordinary recent speed, so watch whether the horse can find another gear against the upgraded opposition.
Dragonflies
J: Rocky Cheung · T: D R Couper
Dragonflies draws a soft run from barrier 2 but faces real headwinds on the form front: recent speed is a concern, recent form is a concern, and the class level raises questions about whether this horse can compete at today's assignment. The main thing to watch is the resumption angle - Dragonflies has yet to win first-up from 8 attempts and usually needs a run to find peak fitness.
Addictive Dream
J: Madi Derrick · T: G W Hammarquist
Addictive Dream is resuming after a break with a barrier 3 draw that should allow a soft run, and its record of 1 win from 4 first-up appearances suggests it typically races well fresh. The trainer is in good current form, which supports the case for a positive return. The main watch is a class rise in this assignment, which sits against the positive freshness and draw factors.
Intoxicating
J: Sharni Webster · T: Ms M Forrester
Intoxicating resumes today with a mixed first-up record (0 from 3) but has struck once into the prep (1 from 3 second-up), so early-race caution is warranted. The key positive is the Forrester/Webster combination, which has struck 269% above expectation over the last 100 rides, lending credibility to the stable's confidence here. Recent form and recent speed are flagged as concerns, and the class move raises questions about whether the horse can step up. Watch the opening performance closely, as resumption form is the main thing to settle before committing.
Mars Mission⚔️ Danger
J: Kate Pateman · T: Aaron Pateman
Mars Mission owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.6 seconds under track par, and the Aaron Pateman / Kate Pateman combination is striking 36% above expectation across their last 100 runners. The horse has placed in 3 of 9 first-up attempts and runs well when fresh, which suits a resumption today. Watch the class shift as the main question mark, since that sits against the strength of the recent speed, trainer form, and fitness angle.
Kimberley Currency🎯 Next Best
J: Jefferson Tsang · T: Cliff Howe
Kimberley Currency has won 1 of 2 starts at Carnarvon over this 1000m trip, and comes to today off a placed effort beaten just 1.5L, suggesting current racing form. The Cliff Howe and Jefferson Tsang partnership is striking 31% above expectation across their last 100 runners, a meaningful edge. The main concern is a class move up, which sits against the form, and the horse is resuming today with a poor first-up record of 0 wins from 4 attempts - it usually needs a run to show its best.
She Is All Magic
J: Natika Riordan · T: Jacquelyn Scott
She Is All Magic resumes today with a decent first-up record of 3 from 6 and a pattern of running well fresh, which supports the timing here. The Jacquelyn Scott and Natika Riordan combination has struck at 125% above expectation across their last 100 rides together, giving confidence in the stable and riding setup. However, recent form reads as a concern, the class move raises questions, and recent speed figures lack standout credentials, so watch closely whether those first-up credentials and the Scott/Riordan edge can overcome the form and class headwinds.
SwexanTOP PICK
J: Giaan O'Donnell · T: D E Black
Swexan won last start by 3.5L at Carnarvon and is a proven fresh runner with 2 placings from 2 first-up attempts, giving solid grounding for a resumption today. The trainer/jockey combo of D E Black and Giaan O'Donnell is striking 83% above expectation from their last 100 runners, and the horse itself shows a consistent 25% career strike rate with 2 wins from 5 starts at this track. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 10 of 10, which will need to be overcome given the recent strength of form and track record.