Higgins Coatings (Bm50)

Hell Of A Prince resumes today from barrier 2 with a soft run likely, but the case here is thin: recent form is a concern, class metrics are problematic, recent speed figures offer nothing standout, and the jockey is struggling. The main thing to watch is the 0-from-7 first-up record - this horse typically needs a run to find its feet, which works directly against it fresh.

Energia's case rests on a sharp fresh record (1 win from 2 first-up starts) and a favourable barrier 3 draw that should allow an economical run. However, recent form and recent speed are both flagged as concerns, and this looks a class step up, so the horse will need to translate its first-up edge into a competitive showing at a higher level. Watch closely whether it can find its best speed early; if it struggles to travel in the first half, the doubts about recent form will likely be borne out.

Nitrogen resumes today with a favourable fresh record (2 from 6 placed first-up) and pairs with the R T Hay/Emma Simsir combination, which is striking 59% above expectation across their last 100 runs together. The main watch is whether it can overcome a class move that shapes as a concern on the day.

Harley Charlie resumes today with a poor first-up record (0 from 4) but has won twice in four starts when second-up into a campaign, giving some grounds for an inside run. The main case leans on trainer T B Thomas and jockey Chris Meehan, who are striking at 104% above expectation across their last 100 rides together. Recent form, class standing, and speed figures are all concerns, and the horse is unproven in wet conditions after four attempts on soft tracks without a win. Watch closely whether the rain comes in and whether this proves a genuine second-up chance or a false signal.

Daunting Instinct is stepping up in class at the same time as stretching out in distance, which presents mixed signals: the distance extension plays to its strengths, but the class jump is a legitimate concern after recent form dips. The case leans on its ability to handle the extra ground rather than recent speed or consistency. Watch closely that it's returning off a break without a win from three first-up attempts, and note it remains unproven in the wet after failing to win on soft ground in three tries.

Pauli brings among the quickest recent time figures in the field, running 0.2 seconds under the track average, which is the main positive signal here. However, the case is clouded by three concerns: a class move into this race, recent form that has deteriorated, and recent speed that sits below where it needs to be relative to the field. The main thing to watch is that Pauli is resuming today and has yet to win first-up from 4 attempts, usually needing a run to find peak form. Additionally, Pauli remains unproven in the wet with zero wins from 10 tries on soft ground, which matters if conditions soften.