France
3-0-0
England
✓2-1-0
France to win by the odd goal
How the result shapes up
Relative likelihood of each result - home win, draw, away win. Wider = more likely. Never shown as a price.
Likely scorelines
Most likely
1-1
2-1
2-0
The exact scores our goals model rates most likely, in order - soccer scorelines are inherently hard to call, so treat these as the shape of the game rather than a promise.
The Read
France's unbeaten run and razor-sharp attack (3.3 goals a game) give them the edge here, but England's miserly defence (0.7 conceded) and their own resilience make them a tough proposition at a neutral ground. Both sides keep clean sheets in about half their games and concede at an identical rate, which points to a cagey, low-scoring affair - a 1-1 draw looks the most likely outcome. The key thing to watch is whether France can break down England's shape early; if neither side lands a clean punch in the first half, this stays locked at 0-0.
Michael Olise · France - Leads the World Cup with five assists, all from open play—only Pelé has more assists at a single tournament (6 in 1970).
Anthony Gordon · England - Has a hand in four goals in his last four FIFA World Cup appearances (one goal, three assists), scoring or assisting every 66 minutes.
William Saliba · France - Likely without William Saliba who came off injured in the first half against Spain.
Both sides were expected to reach the final, making this one of the biggest surprises of the tournament.
Didier Deschamps will take charge of his 187th and final match in charge of the France national team, with his 121 wins more than any other head coach for Les Bleus.
Kylian Mbappé is level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race on eight goals, and with Messi playing in Sunday's final, this is Mbappé's last chance to add to his total.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - built from team ratings, season scoring rates, home/away splits, recent form, rest days and home advantage. The final call is also cross-checked against market expectations where available.
Not available for this game: market odds.
France
Miserly defence - conceding just 0.7 goals a game.
In control - winning 100% of their games this season.
Hard to break down - a clean sheet in roughly 51% of games.
Free-scoring - 3.3 goals a game at the right end.
Box-office - their games average 4 total goals.
England
Miserly defence - conceding just 0.7 goals a game.
In control - winning 67% of their games this season.
Hard to break down - a clean sheet in roughly 51% of games.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public match data, cross-checked against market expectations where available - for information only, not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.