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Cats
15-8
Blues
12-10
Cats to win
Winner
Cats
72% agree
Line
By 19+
50% more
Total
180 pts
55% over
Cats are the clear favourites here. They're in a purple patch with six straight wins, they've been nearly unbeatable at home this year with an 11-1 record at the MCG, and when they get rolling they put teams away convincingly, averaging a 37.7-point winning margin. Their attack is slick too, pushing 102 points a game. Blues will fancy their chances in a tight contest since nine of their matches have been decided by two goals or less, but they're coming off a shorter turnaround which could dull their edge. That's the one thing to watch - whether the Blues' quick turnaround lets the Cats take control early.
We are reading the room. Check back Thursday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Cats
Red-hot - riding a 6-game winning streak.
Fortress at home - 11-1 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 102.4 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 37.7 points the average winning margin.
Live in tight games - 6 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Blues
Live in tight games - 9 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
Cats
Blues
Last Game Key Callouts
Disposals Up 61 on their last 5 average
Disposals
Marks
Inside 50s
Marks inside 50
Goal assists
Contested possessions
Clearances
Hitouts
Tackles
Rebound 50s
One percenters
Clangers
Frees against
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer clangers and frees against count as better.
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.