NFL Tips & Predictions - Week 6

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The Jaguars look the right side here. Both teams have their starting quarterbacks, so this comes down to form and efficiency, and Jacksonville have the edge - they arrive on a 3-game winning streak, concede just 14 points a game, and when they win they do it big, with a 15 points average winning margin this season. The Texans are just as careful with the ball at 0.4 giveaways a game, though the Jaguars at 0.6 are not far behind, so turnovers won't decide it. The thing to watch is Anton Harrison's absence at left tackle, which puts pressure on the Jacksonville line to keep Trevor Lawrence clean.

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This is a genuine coin flip, but if you're leaning, lean Bears, mainly because their defence is the tighter unit, conceding just 19.2 points a game, even with Dayo Odeyingbo (RDE) ruled out with a quadriceps issue. Atlanta have the home field in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and Michael Penix Jr. against Tyson Bagent is a quarterback matchup that will shape how this plays out. The thing to watch is the ball - the Falcons cough it up 1.8 times a game and the Bears 2 times a game, so whichever side protects it better is likely to decide this, with the forecast fine at kick-off.

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The Ravens are the higher-rated side and more efficient per snap, and they look after the ball, giving it away only 0.6 times a game while scoring 29.2 points a game. Baltimore arrive in form, riding a 3-game winning streak and going 3-0 away from home this season, which makes them the stronger pick on the road. The thing to watch is the Browns' home field and their habit of playing close games, with 4 of their games this season decided by 8 points or fewer, while Cleveland's offence has managed only 18.6 points a game.

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The Colts look the side to back here, with home field, the higher rating and hotter recent form all in their favour, while the Titans come in on a 5-game losing run and are scoring only 11.6 points a game. Daniel Jones needs to keep the Colts offence efficient against Cam Ward, though Tennessee's tighter defence should make this a close, grinding contest. The thing to watch is the Colts' back end, which is shipping 27.6 points a game and gives the Titans a route back into it if they can find some rhythm on offence.

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Drake Maye starts for the Patriots against Geno Smith and the Jets, and with the home field at Gillette Stadium and the higher-rated side on their side, I lean New England. Both defences are stingy, with the Patriots conceding 18.8 points a game and the Jets 19.2, but the Jets look after the ball with just 0.6 giveaways a game, while they have gone just 1-2 on the road this season. The thing to watch is the Patriots coughing it up 2.2 times a game, made more pressing by left tackle Will Campbell being doubtful with a knee MCL sprain.

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Jaxson Dart is ruled out, so Jameis Winston starts at quarterback for the Giants, and that is the big question mark on a side that otherwise has plenty going for it. Home ground is their main edge, with the Giants 3-0 in their own building this season and 3rd in the conference, and their defence has been the tighter unit. The Saints are on a 3-game losing run, shipping 30.2 points a game and coughing it up 2.2 times a game, so if Winston avoids mistakes and the Giants keep the ball safe, they have the edge. Honestly this is close to a true 50/50, so the thing to watch is whether Tyler Shough's side can cut out the giveaways that have hurt them all year.

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Jalen Hurts is out with a calf injury, so the Eagles are missing their starting quarterback, and that is the first thing to weigh here. Bryce Young and the Panthers look the sharper side, with more efficiency per snap and extra rest against a short week for Philadelphia, while Carolina's explosive offence, putting up 30.3 points a game, gives them a real edge. This is a lean rather than a certainty, and the Eagles do have home field and a 18.4-points-a-game offence that has been stalling. The thing to watch is how often Philadelphia keeps games close - four of their games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer, and they are on a 3-game losing run.

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The Steelers get the lean, and it starts under centre - Baker Mayfield is ruled out for Tampa with a dislocated thumb, so Jalon Daniels gets the start against Aaron Rodgers, and Pittsburgh come in as the higher-rated side on hotter recent form. Raymond James Stadium gives the Buccaneers a real home edge, but it doesn't offset losing a key starter. The thing to watch is the ball - Tampa are coughing it up 1.8 times a game, and 5 of their games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer, so one turnover could settle it.

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The Rams look the side to back here, with the edge coming from being the higher-rated team, more efficient per snap, playing at home and boasting the tighter defence. Matthew Stafford starts for the Rams against Jacoby Brissett, and the Cardinals arrive on a 4-game losing run, just 1-2 on the road this season and shipping 32.4 points a game, which is a lot to overcome in California. The thing to watch is the Rams' protection with Alaric Jackson suspended at left tackle, because a wobble on Stafford's blindside is the one thing that could give Arizona a way back into this.

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Chiefs are the call here, and the edge starts with the home field, extra rest and a more efficient offence per snap. Kansas City arrive on a 4-game winning streak, conceding just 19.3 points a game while scoring 29.5, and they hardly give the ball away at 0.5 giveaways a game. The Chargers have their own problems, coughing it up 2.6 times a game on a 5-game losing run and playing on a short week, so the thing to watch is whether Justin Herbert and Los Angeles can protect the ball and stay in the game.

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The lean goes to Buffalo, mainly on the strength of their attack, with Josh Allen steering an offence that puts up 32.8 points a game, and the Bills' higher rating is the main reason they're favoured over Kirk Cousins and the Raiders. Las Vegas has a real counter in the home field and a defence that forces 2 takeaways a game. The thing to watch is Buffalo's habit of coughing it up 1.8 times a game, with 4 of their games this season decided by 8 points or fewer, so one turnover could decide this one.

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The lean goes to the Packers, with Jordan Love's side holding the edge as the higher-rated team and playing at home in Lambeau. Their habit of forcing turnovers, 1.8 takeaways a game, is the part that matters most, since it gives them a route to scoring off the Cowboys' mistakes. Dallas can move the ball quickly with 27.6 points a game, so the thing to watch is how they handle close situations, because four of their games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

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San Francisco have the edge here, and it starts at home - the 49ers are 3-0 in their own building this season and riding a 5-game winning streak, with Brock Purdy leading an offence putting up 30.8 points a game. Their defence is just as stingy, conceding only 18.6 points a game, which is the combination that tends to win comfortably at Levi's. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders look after the ball, with only 0.4 giveaways a game, so they can keep this from becoming a turnover-driven blowout, but they're shipping 29.8 points a game, and that leaky defence is what the 49ers will look to exploit.

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The Broncos get the nod, mainly because they're at home at Empower Field, though the Seahawks' edge is being the higher-rated side. Sam Darnold starts for Seahawks in place of the ruled-out Drew Lock, and Seahawks are a contender sitting 4th in the conference with 2.2 takeaways a game. Honestly, this is close to a coin flip, so the thing to watch is how often Seahawks are in tight finishes - 4 of their games this season were decided by 8 points or fewer, and with 1.8 giveaways a game, one turnover could settle it.