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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Finals Week 1Adelaide Oval
Crows
15-8
vSat, 5 Sept, 7:35 pm AEST
Bulldogs
13-9
Our PickSlight Lean
Crows to win
Margin19Total172 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
28 votesWinner
Crows
36% agree
Line
By 19+
61% more
Total
172 pts
64% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Adelaide's fortress mentality at home (9-3) gives them a genuine edge here, especially given their habit of turning wins into blowouts when they get on top (32.1-point average margin). The Crows are the fresher side and higher-rated overall, which matters in a game where quick legs could prove decisive. The key to watch is whether the Bulldogs' shorter turnaround allows the Crows to control the tempo early, because both sides thrive in close contests and the Dogs have shown they can hang around in tight finishes.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ CrowsBulldogs ▶
Overall rating
Attack vs defence
Recent form
Home ground
Travel load
Rest & freshness
Team availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Crows
🏰
Fortress at home - 9-3 on their own deck this season.
💥
When they win, they win big - 32.1 points the average winning margin.
😬
Live in tight games - 8 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Bulldogs
😬
Live in tight games - 11 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Crows
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Bulldogs
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Disposals
Crows368.7356.2400Bulldogs358.9365.4375
Marks
Crows91.085.689Bulldogs85.886.283
Inside 50s
Crows52.653.064Bulldogs50.653.250
Marks inside 50
Crows11.312.616Bulldogs11.413.017
Goal assists
Crows10.912.615Bulldogs8.98.210
Contested possessions
Crows139.8139.4150Bulldogs126.9131.0139
Clearances
Crows37.339.441Bulldogs37.736.037
Hitouts
Crows41.542.642Bulldogs29.426.824
Tackles
Crows67.558.845Bulldogs56.755.255
Rebound 50s
Crows40.539.841Bulldogs39.937.645
One percenters
Crows45.244.030Bulldogs50.251.854
Clangers
Crows55.747.646Bulldogs54.051.648
Frees against
Crows19.518.420Bulldogs18.918.617
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer clangers and frees against count as better.
🚑Ins & Outs
Adam Treloar (Bulldogs) out - injuryKey out
Lachlan Smith (Bulldogs) out - injuryKey out
Sam Darcy (Bulldogs) out - injuryKey out
Luke Pedlar (Crows) out - injury
Zac Taylor (Crows) out - injury
Thomas Liberatore (Bulldogs) out - injury
Will Lewis (Bulldogs) out - injury
James Peatling (Crows) out - injury
Riley Garcia (Bulldogs) out - injury
Season form guide
CrowsvsBulldogs
6Ladder8
15-8Win–Loss13-9
94.3Pts for /game82.7
80.4Pts against /game86.6
117%Percentage95%
60Premiership pts54
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.