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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Finals Week 1S.C.G.
Swans
18-5
vSat, 5 Sept, 3:15 pm AEST
Lions
16-7
Our PickLine-Ball
Lions - too close to call
Total195 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
33 votesWinner
Lions
60% agree
Line
By 11+
83% more
Total
195 pts
79% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Swans are playing the better footy right now, matching the Lions' three-game tear with a five-game streak of their own, and they've got the SCG working hard in their favour with an 11-1 home record this season. Both sides are scoring heavily, so this won't be a grind, but the Lions' higher ladder position and proven ability to win by nearly 45 points on average keeps this honest. Watch whether the Swans can hold their fortress advantage when up against a top-four outfit that's clearly built to travel.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ SwansLions ▶
Overall rating
Attack vs defence
Recent form
Home ground
Travel load
Rest & freshness
Team availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Swans
🔥
Red-hot - riding a 5-game winning streak.
🏰
Fortress at home - 11-1 on their own deck this season.
🎆
Potent attack - banging on 110.6 points a game.
💥
When they win, they win big - 45.3 points the average winning margin.
📊
Dominant on the scoreboard - 136% and climbing.
😬
Live in tight games - 4 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Lions
🔥
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
🎆
Potent attack - banging on 108.7 points a game.
💥
When they win, they win big - 44.8 points the average winning margin.
🏆
Top-four side - sitting 3rd on the ladder.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Swans
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Lions
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Magpiesv
KangaroosClearances Up 14 on their last 5 average
Marks inside 50 Up 6 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Disposals
Swans387.0386.2390Lions374.1373.0366
Marks
Swans79.775.877Lions109.8107.8107
Inside 50s
Swans60.560.870Lions57.656.259
Marks inside 50
Swans14.016.012Lions14.015.421
Goal assists
Swans12.215.816Lions11.512.418
Contested possessions
Swans138.9137.0146Lions129.6121.8131
Clearances
Swans37.743.048Lions40.236.651
Hitouts
Swans39.335.042Lions36.535.649
Tackles
Swans60.957.069Lions48.650.639
Rebound 50s
Swans41.536.029Lions38.738.033
One percenters
Swans49.646.649Lions42.941.046
Clangers
Swans60.556.256Lions53.751.850
Frees against
Swans19.115.812Lions17.215.814
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer clangers and frees against count as better.
🚑Ins & Outs
Chad Warner (Swans) out - suspensionKey out
Isaac Heeney (Swans) out - suspensionKey out
James Jordon (Swans) out - suspensionKey out
Nick Blakey (Swans) out - suspensionKey out
Riley Bice (Swans) out - suspension
Joel Amartey (Swans) out - injury
Justin McInerney (Swans) out - injury
Peter Ladhams (Swans) out - injury
Will Edwards (Swans) out - injury
Liam Hetherton (Swans) out - injury
Max King (Swans) out - injury
Noah Chamberlain (Swans) out - injury
Henry Smith (Lions) out - injury
Jack Payne (Lions) out - injury
Reece Torrent (Lions) out - injury
Zane Zakostelsky (Lions) out - injury
Season form guide
SwansvsLions
2Ladder3
18-5Win–Loss16-7
110.6Pts for /game108.7
81.3Pts against /game89.3
136%Percentage122%
72Premiership pts64
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.