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F
FormPicksSunday 20 September
Preliminary FinalsM.C.G.
Hawks
15-6
122–131
Lions
✓16-7
Our PickLine-Ball
Hawks - too close to call
Total189 pts
✗ Missed
🗳How Fans Voted
Closed ·84 votesWinner
Hawks
49% agree
Line
By 13+
69% more
Total
189 pts
75% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Hawks at the MCG is a proper coin flip, but I'm giving Hawthorn the nod off the back of their fortress record at home - 9 wins from 12 on their own deck - combined with Brisbane arriving off a long road trip on a shorter turnaround. Both sides are top-four operators who blow teams away when they get going, so expect ruthless footy if either gains ascendancy. The thing to watch is whether the Lions' potent attack can override the travel fatigue, because if they get their scoreboard rolling early, their 45-point average winning margin suggests they'll be hard to reel in.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are against the roomLions 55%45%
The talk is nearly all Lions, we are on Hawks. A fortress home deck and fresher legs off the bye tip this our way and we are not moving off it.
The room is leaning on history and finals mystique, and fair enough, Brisbane have had the wood on Hawthorn at that ground before. But this is a home-and-away clash, not September, and if Brisbane's road-weary bodies hold up fine and that hoodoo shows up again, they will prove us wrong.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Rivalry9 mentions
Pundits love harping on about Brisbane's hat-trick of wins over Hawthorn and how they've generally had the wood on them whenever the Hawks have travelled down to that famous old Melbourne ground, so it's no wonder that r…
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We see fresh legs off a bye and a fortress home deck mattering more today than a run of results that happened on different days with different legs.
Finals8 mentions
There's a recurring line that Brisbane simply flicks a switch in do-or-die September football and can be excused an ordinary home-and-away patch because they always seem to find their best when it matters most.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
That's a finals narrative and this isn't finals, so we are not letting it override what a tired travelling side normally does in the home-and-away season.
Form6 mentions
Plenty of pundits reckon Hawthorn are the team hitting their straps right now, and a few even reckon a win today could signal the top of the table finally changing hands for good.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
That's exactly our read too, Hawthorn look the side on the rise and it's a big part of why we like them here.
Fitness12 mentions
A few pundits are asking if Brisbane's bodies will cope, having just fought through a tough semi-final before flying across the country to face a rested Hawthorn outfit coming off a bye.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
The travel and turnaround grind is already baked into our call, it is why we have them by 8 and not by twice that.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ HawksLions ▶
Overall rating
Attack vs defence
Recent form
Home ground
Travel load
Rest & freshness
Team availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Hawks
💥
When they win, they win big - 37.5 points the average winning margin.
🏆
Top-four side - sitting 4th on the ladder.
😬
Live in tight games - 7 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Lions
🎆
Potent attack - banging on 108.7 points a game.
💥
When they win, they win big - 43.2 points the average winning margin.
🏆
Top-four side - sitting 3rd on the ladder.
😬
Live in tight games - 4 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Hawks
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Lions
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
vLionsvHawksTackles Up 17 on their last 5 average
Clearances Up 14 on their last 5 average
Marks inside 50 Up 6 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Disposals
Hawks387.1381.8368Lions374.1373.0366
Marks
Hawks99.1103.687Lions109.8107.8107
Inside 50s
Hawks57.058.466Lions57.656.259
Marks inside 50
Hawks13.415.617Lions14.015.421
Goal assists
Hawks10.411.013Lions11.512.418
Contested possessions
Hawks130.7125.4143Lions129.6121.8131
Clearances
Hawks37.336.640Lions40.236.651
Hitouts
Hawks43.337.836Lions36.535.649
Tackles
Hawks58.754.672Lions48.650.639
Rebound 50s
Hawks38.138.038Lions38.738.033
One percenters
Hawks40.041.253Lions42.941.046
Clangers
Hawks57.955.066Lions53.751.850
Frees against
Hawks18.417.621Lions17.215.814
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer clangers and frees against count as better.
Season form guide
HawksvsLions
4Ladder3
15-6Win–Loss16-7
98.3Pts for /game108.7
81.8Pts against /game89.3
120%Percentage122%
64Premiership pts64
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.