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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Acrisure Stadium· Fine
Steelers
QB Aaron Rodgers
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Falcons
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Our PickSlight Lean
Steelers to win
Margin3Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
50 votesWinner
Steelers
71% agree
Line
By 3+
73% more
Total
46 pts
56% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Steelers have the edge here, mainly because they're at home where they can control the tempo and limit the Falcons' ability to dictate play. Aaron Rodgers against Tua Tagovailoa is a significant quarterback matchup in Pittsburgh's favour, and losing Zach Harrison on the Falcons' defensive line makes it harder for Atlanta to generate pressure up front. Both teams are comfortable playing tight contests, so expect a grind, but the Steelers' home-field advantage and quarterback quality tip this one their way. The key thing to watch is whether the Falcons can shake off the loss of Harrison and still generate enough defensive disruption to keep this close.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ SteelersFalcons ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Steelers
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Falcons
🔥
Finished last season on a 4-game winning streak.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Steelers
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Falcons
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Texansv
SaintsTakeaways Up 2 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Down 0.51 on their last 5 average
Rushing yards Down 69 on their last 5 average
Rushing yards Down 81 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Down 0.23 on their last 5 average
Yards per play Down 1.6 on their last 5 average
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The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Steelers · 2025-0.01-0.04-0.54Falcons · 2025-0.02-0.03-0.26
Defence EPA / play allowed
Steelers · 2025+0.02+0.01+0.09Falcons · 2025-0.01+0.01-0.03
Yards per play
Steelers · 20255.35.33.8Falcons · 20255.65.43.8
Passing yards
Steelers · 2025210.0220.0148Falcons · 2025217.8207.6180
Rushing yards
Steelers · 2025101.1131.863Falcons · 2025125.8130.249
Explosive plays
Steelers · 20255.06.25Falcons · 20255.95.62
Giveaways
Steelers · 20250.90.62Falcons · 20251.11.41
Takeaways
Steelers · 20251.71.43Falcons · 20251.41.62
Sacks
Steelers · 20252.83.03Falcons · 20253.43.24
Sacks allowed
Steelers · 20251.92.64Falcons · 20251.51.44
Penalty yards
Steelers · 202545.943.424Falcons · 202548.257.042
Points scored
Steelers · 202522.419.06Falcons · 202520.822.019
Points allowed
Steelers · 202523.221.230Falcons · 202523.625.017
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
SteelersvsFalcons
10-7Record8-9
7 in AFCConference10 in NFC
23.4Pts for /game20.8
22.8Pts against /game23.6
4-2Division3-3
Aaron RodgersStarting QBTua Tagovailoa
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.