Loading NFL game…
F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Bank of America Stadium· Fine
Panthers
QB Bryce Young
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Bears
QB Caleb Williams
Our PickLine-Ball
Bears - too close to call
Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
48 votesWinner
Bears
63% agree
Line
By 2+
71% more
Total
46 pts
73% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is genuinely a coin flip, but I'm giving the slightest lean to the Bears. Yes, Carolina gets the home-field advantage and Bryce Young has a chance to settle in front of his own crowd, but Chicago's the better-rated team and that matters when everything else is even. The Panthers limped home last season losing their final three games and have been poor travellers, while the Bears showed more consistency. Both teams live in tight contests, so expect this to come down to the wire. The key thing to watch is Carolina's offence - they managed just 18.3 points a game last year, and without Tershawn Wharton on the edge, their defence will be under pressure to keep them in it. If Young can't generate enough scoring, Chicago will find a way through.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ PanthersBears ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Panthers
✈️
Poor travellers - just 3-6 on the road last season.
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 3.
😬
Live in one-score games - 11 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🥶
Stalling on offence - only 18.3 points a game last season.
Bears
😬
Live in one-score games - 13 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Panthers
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Bears
2025 season19 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
RamsvRamsGiveaways Up 2 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Panthers · 2025-0.06-0.09-0.07Bears · 2025+0.07+0.10-0.04
Defence EPA / play allowed
Panthers · 2025+0.07+0.04+0.08Bears · 2025+0.02+0.15+0.04
Yards per play
Panthers · 20255.25.05.4Bears · 20255.86.05.1
Passing yards
Panthers · 2025198.2187.6264Bears · 2025242.6282.0257
Rushing yards
Panthers · 2025114.485.883Bears · 2025142.6115.6160
Explosive plays
Panthers · 20255.14.84Bears · 20257.67.67
Giveaways
Panthers · 20251.41.62Bears · 20250.81.23
Takeaways
Panthers · 20251.21.01Bears · 20251.70.60
Sacks
Panthers · 20251.72.61Bears · 20252.12.24
Sacks allowed
Panthers · 20252.11.42Bears · 20251.30.40
Penalty yards
Panthers · 202544.346.835Bears · 202552.639.624
Points scored
Panthers · 202519.019.031Bears · 202525.724.817
Points allowed
Panthers · 202523.023.434Bears · 202524.324.820
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
PanthersvsBears
8-9Record11-6
11 in NFCConference5 in NFC
18.3Pts for /game25.9
22.4Pts against /game24.4
3-3Division2-4
Bryce YoungStarting QBCaleb Williams
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.