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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1EverBank Stadium· Fine
Jaguars
QB Trevor Lawrence
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Browns
QB Deshaun Watson
Our PickSlight Lean
Jaguars to win
Margin5Total45 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
50 votesWinner
Jaguars
64% agree
Line
By 5+
59% more
Total
45 pts
58% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Jacksonville's explosive offence, which averaged 27.9 points last season, faces a Browns side that managed just 16.4 points a game and won only 2 of 6 road trips. The Jaguars lean here, helped by home field and their proven ability to dominate when they get rolling, winning by 14.2 points on average when they take games. That said, Jacksonville lost Cole Van Lanen at left tackle, and both teams live in tight contests, so watch how well the Jaguars protect Trevor Lawrence and whether the Browns can stay close enough to make it a one-score fight.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ JaguarsBrowns ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Jaguars
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 27.9 points a game last season.
🚌
Road warriors - 6-2 away from home last season.
💥
When they win, they win big - 14.2 points the average winning margin last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
🏆
Finished last season 3rd in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Browns
✈️
Poor travellers - just 2-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 9 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🥶
Stalling on offence - only 16.4 points a game last season.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Jaguars
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Browns
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Billsv
BengalsDefence EPA / play allowed Up 0.32 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Jaguars · 2025+0.03+0.14+0.03Browns · 2025-0.19-0.18-0.13
Defence EPA / play allowed
Jaguars · 2025-0.09-0.11+0.21Browns · 2025-0.09-0.04+0.02
Yards per play
Jaguars · 20255.66.26.7Browns · 20254.75.14.4
Passing yards
Jaguars · 2025235.2270.0207Browns · 2025185.4199.0111
Rushing yards
Jaguars · 2025117.2105.6154Browns · 202597.093.4118
Explosive plays
Jaguars · 20256.38.49Browns · 20254.55.04
Giveaways
Jaguars · 20251.11.02Browns · 20251.52.01
Takeaways
Jaguars · 20251.81.81Browns · 20251.10.62
Sacks
Jaguars · 20251.81.61Browns · 20253.12.02
Sacks allowed
Jaguars · 20252.32.01Browns · 20253.03.66
Penalty yards
Jaguars · 202560.633.010Browns · 202549.440.040
Points scored
Jaguars · 202527.734.024Browns · 202516.417.020
Points allowed
Jaguars · 202520.218.227Browns · 202522.321.818
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
JaguarsvsBrowns
13-4Record5-12
3 in AFCConference13 in AFC
27.9Pts for /game16.4
19.8Pts against /game22.3
5-1Division2-4
Trevor LawrenceStarting QBDeshaun Watson
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.