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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Ford Field· dome
Lions
QB Jared Goff
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Saints
QB Tyler Shough
Our PickSlight Lean
Lions to win
Margin4Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
50 votesWinner
Lions
63% agree
Line
By 4+
56% more
Total
46 pts
53% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Lions are the clear pick here. They're a genuinely explosive outfit averaging 28.3 points a game, they play at home where they've got the edge, and when they win they tend to win convincingly, with an average margin of 15.2 points last season. The Saints are the concern - they managed just 18 points a game last year and have struggled on the road with a 3-6 record away from New Orleans. The thing to watch is whether this stays tight - both teams played eight one-score games last season, so there's a genuine chance the Saints keep it closer than their poor offence and travel record would suggest.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ LionsSaints ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Lions
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 28.3 points a game last season.
💥
When they win, they win big - 15.2 points the average winning margin last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Saints
✈️
Poor travellers - just 3-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🥶
Stalling on offence - only 18 points a game last season.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Lions
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Saints
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Lions · 2025+0.07+0.05+0.14Saints · 2025-0.07+0.08-0.03
Defence EPA / play allowed
Lions · 2025-0.00+0.04-0.02Saints · 2025-0.07-0.17-0.26
Yards per play
Lions · 20256.26.06.3Saints · 20255.36.15.6
Passing yards
Lions · 2025268.6307.8331Saints · 2025236.9270.8259
Rushing yards
Lions · 2025120.176.8122Saints · 202594.3103.0108
Explosive plays
Lions · 20256.56.25Saints · 20253.94.64
Giveaways
Lions · 20250.91.41Saints · 20251.41.02
Takeaways
Lions · 20251.11.21Saints · 20251.21.21
Sacks
Lions · 20252.83.21Saints · 20252.63.44
Sacks allowed
Lions · 20252.32.63Saints · 20252.93.44
Penalty yards
Lions · 202542.235.035Saints · 202554.162.840
Points scored
Lions · 202528.326.219Saints · 202518.024.817
Points allowed
Lions · 202524.327.816Saints · 202522.517.619
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
LionsvsSaints
9-8Record6-11
7 in NFCConference13 in NFC
28.3Pts for /game18.0
24.3Pts against /game22.5
2-4Division3-3
Jared GoffStarting QBTyler Shough
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.