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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Paycor Stadium· Fine
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield
Our PickLine-Ball
Bengals - too close to call
Total48 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
45 votesWinner
Bengals
51% agree
Total
48 pts
58% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is genuinely a coin flip, but I'm leaning Bengals because they've got the home field at Paycor. Both teams live in tight contests - the Bengals played 8 one-score games last season while Tampa Bay was in 12 - so expect a grind rather than a blowout. The key thing to watch is Cincinnati's defence. They ship nearly 29 points a game, which is a real vulnerability, and Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers thrive in exactly these close, low-scoring affairs where a few defensive lapses can cost you.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ BengalsBuccaneers ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Bengals
🕳️
Leaky at the back - shipping 28.9 points a game last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Buccaneers
😬
Live in one-score games - 12 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Bengals
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Buccaneers
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Brownsv
PanthersSacks Up 3 on their last 5 average
Takeaways Up 2 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Bengals · 2025+0.01+0.11+0.02Buccaneers · 2025-0.00+0.00+0.01
Defence EPA / play allowed
Bengals · 2025+0.13+0.04-0.13Buccaneers · 2025+0.03+0.09-0.02
Yards per play
Bengals · 20255.55.95.7Buccaneers · 20255.45.45.2
Passing yards
Bengals · 2025249.6277.4236Buccaneers · 2025220.9218.6203
Rushing yards
Bengals · 202593.6105.8142Buccaneers · 2025114.5125.8140
Explosive plays
Bengals · 20254.95.05Buccaneers · 20256.16.04
Giveaways
Bengals · 20251.41.22Buccaneers · 20250.91.41
Takeaways
Bengals · 20251.21.21Buccaneers · 20251.41.03
Sacks
Bengals · 20252.03.46Buccaneers · 20252.21.60
Sacks allowed
Bengals · 20252.12.22Buccaneers · 20252.22.42
Penalty yards
Bengals · 202537.229.640Buccaneers · 202543.444.045
Points scored
Bengals · 202524.426.818Buccaneers · 202522.420.216
Points allowed
Bengals · 202528.923.620Buccaneers · 202524.222.014
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
BengalsvsBuccaneers
6-11Record8-9
12 in AFCConference9 in NFC
24.4Pts for /game22.4
28.9Pts against /game24.2
3-3Division3-3
Joe BurrowStarting QBBaker Mayfield
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.