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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1· DivisionalU.S. Bank Stadium· dome
Vikings
QB Kyler Murray
vMon, 14 Sept, 6:25 am AEST
Packers
QB Jordan Love
Our PickLine-Ball
Vikings - too close to call
Total44 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
48 votesWinner
Vikings
63% agree
Line
By 2+
81% more
Total
44 pts
55% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
I'm giving this one to Minnesota, but only just. The Vikings finished last season hot with five straight wins and they've got the home field advantage at U.S. Bank, which matters in tight games. Both teams live in one-score contests, so this will be decided by margins, but Green Bay arrives here limping after five straight losses to close their year. The real edge for Minnesota sits with Kyler Murray against Jordan Love in what shapes as a genuine toss-up otherwise. Watch the turnover battle though, because Green Bay's discipline with the ball (0.7 giveaways a game) could keep them in a one-score fight they have no business winning.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday evening, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ VikingsPackers ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Vikings
🔥
Finished last season on a 5-game winning streak.
😬
Live in one-score games - 9 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Packers
🔒
Look after the ball - only 0.7 giveaways a game last season.
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 5.
😬
Live in one-score games - 11 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Vikings
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Packers
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
vPackersv
BearsTakeaways Down 2 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Up 0.20 on their last 5 average
Passing yards Up 98 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Vikings · 2025-0.14+0.00-0.04Packers · 2025+0.11+0.02+0.22
Defence EPA / play allowed
Vikings · 2025-0.10-0.30-0.32Packers · 2025+0.03+0.13+0.11
Yards per play
Vikings · 20255.25.35.9Packers · 20255.95.96.0
Passing yards
Vikings · 2025188.7172.6239Packers · 2025231.6225.4323
Rushing yards
Vikings · 2025108.3129.6137Packers · 2025118.7122.699
Explosive plays
Vikings · 20255.45.27Packers · 20257.08.211
Giveaways
Vikings · 20251.80.81Packers · 20250.71.00
Takeaways
Vikings · 20251.22.00Packers · 20250.90.82
Sacks
Vikings · 20252.93.64Packers · 20252.10.81
Sacks allowed
Vikings · 20253.53.42Packers · 20251.72.41
Penalty yards
Vikings · 202552.134.220Packers · 202549.152.465
Points scored
Vikings · 202520.224.016Packers · 202523.219.227
Points allowed
Vikings · 202519.610.43Packers · 202521.728.831
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
VikingsvsPackers
9-8Record9-7-1
8 in NFCConference6 in NFC
20.2Pts for /game23.0
19.6Pts against /game21.2
4-2Division4-2
Kyler MurrayStarting QBJordan Love
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.