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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Allegiant Stadium· dome
Raiders
QB Kirk Cousins
vMon, 14 Sept, 6:25 am AEST
Dolphins
QB Malik Willis
Our PickLine-Ball
Dolphins - too close to call
Total44 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
47 votesWinner
Dolphins
72% agree
Line
By 2+
67% more
Total
44 pts
82% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is genuinely a coin flip, but I'm leaning Dolphins despite both teams being poor travellers. Miami finished last season as the higher-rated side while Las Vegas managed just 14.2 points a game and sits 30th in the league, which is a structural problem Kirk Cousins alone won't fix. The Raiders do have the home-field advantage at Allegiant, and both teams live in tight one-score games, so there's no margin for error either way. Watch whether Malik Willis can manage the offence effectively for Miami, because if this stays close late, the Raiders' familiarity with playing in tight contests could tip it their way.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday evening, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ RaidersDolphins ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Raiders
✈️
Poor travellers - just 1-7 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🥶
Stalling on offence - only 14.2 points a game last season.
🐶
Finished last season 30th in the league.
Dolphins
✈️
Poor travellers - just 2-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Raiders
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Dolphins
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Patriotsv
ChiefsOffence EPA / play Down 0.32 on their last 5 average
Yards per play Down 2.0 on their last 5 average
Sacks Down 3 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Down 0.46 on their last 5 average
Sacks Up 5 on their last 5 average
Takeaways Up 2 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Raiders · 2025-0.23-0.24-0.49Dolphins · 2025-0.01-0.02-0.34
Defence EPA / play allowed
Raiders · 2025+0.00-0.01-0.47Dolphins · 2025+0.08+0.09+0.28
Yards per play
Raiders · 20254.84.63.7Dolphins · 20255.75.73.7
Passing yards
Raiders · 2025195.0155.0105Dolphins · 2025195.4189.8137
Rushing yards
Raiders · 202577.582.4118Dolphins · 2025120.2127.863
Explosive plays
Raiders · 20254.02.84Dolphins · 20255.86.23
Giveaways
Raiders · 20251.41.22Dolphins · 20251.41.22
Takeaways
Raiders · 20250.90.42Dolphins · 20251.21.20
Sacks
Raiders · 20252.12.88Dolphins · 20252.32.80
Sacks allowed
Raiders · 20253.83.63Dolphins · 20252.22.24
Penalty yards
Raiders · 202553.040.010Dolphins · 202547.746.852
Points scored
Raiders · 202514.212.414Dolphins · 202520.420.010
Points allowed
Raiders · 202525.424.812Dolphins · 202524.927.638
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
RaidersvsDolphins
3-14Record7-10
14 in AFCConference10 in AFC
14.2Pts for /game20.4
25.4Pts against /game24.9
1-5Division3-3
Kirk CousinsStarting QBMalik Willis
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.