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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1· DivisionalArrowhead Stadium· Fine
Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes
vTue, 15 Sept, 10:15 am AEST
Broncos
QB Bo Nix
Our PickLine-Ball
Broncos - too close to call
Total44 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
50 votesWinner
Broncos
59% agree
Line
By 2+
49% more
Total
44 pts
68% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is genuinely a coin flip, but the Broncos' rock-solid defence and proven ability to win on the road give them the slight edge in Kansas City. The Chiefs are wounded coming off a 1-7 road record last season and limped to the finish line, though they do win decisively when they get it right. The key thing to watch is whether Patrick Mahomes can shake off that travel curse, because if the Chiefs settle into one of their signature one-score battles on their home turf, they know how to win those.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Sunday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ ChiefsBroncos ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Chiefs
💥
When they win, they win big - 16.3 points the average winning margin last season.
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 6.
✈️
Poor travellers - just 1-7 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Broncos
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 18.3 points a game last season.
🏰
Fortress at home - 9-2 in their own building last season.
🚌
Road warriors - 6-2 away from home last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
🏆
Finished last season 2nd in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 15 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Chiefs
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Broncos
2025 season19 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Patriotsv
RaidersOffence EPA / play Down 0.23 on their last 5 average
Explosive plays Down 4 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Down 0.39 on their last 5 average
Sacks allowed Up 4 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Down 0.19 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Chiefs · 2025+0.02-0.27-0.47Broncos · 2025+0.02-0.09-0.31
Defence EPA / play allowed
Chiefs · 2025-0.05-0.10-0.49Broncos · 2025-0.10-0.12-0.15
Yards per play
Chiefs · 20255.44.03.7Broncos · 20255.34.93.7
Passing yards
Chiefs · 2025232.2141.8146Broncos · 2025228.6217.4133
Rushing yards
Chiefs · 2025106.678.484Broncos · 2025114.198.879
Explosive plays
Chiefs · 20255.63.03Broncos · 20255.65.21
Giveaways
Chiefs · 20250.91.42Broncos · 20251.11.22
Takeaways
Chiefs · 20250.80.82Broncos · 20251.01.40
Sacks
Chiefs · 20251.92.63Broncos · 20254.03.65
Sacks allowed
Chiefs · 20252.84.08Broncos · 20251.41.83
Penalty yards
Chiefs · 202555.939.645Broncos · 202561.829.65
Points scored
Chiefs · 202521.311.412Broncos · 202523.219.87
Points allowed
Chiefs · 202519.319.214Broncos · 202518.518.010
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
Form guide · 2025 season
ChiefsvsBroncos
6-11Record14-3
11 in AFCConference2 in AFC
21.3Pts for /game23.6
19.3Pts against /game18.3
1-5Division5-1
Patrick MahomesStarting QBBo Nix
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.