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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Round 27Accor Stadium, Sydney
Bulldogs
11-12
vThu, 3 Sept, 7:50 pm AEST
Broncos
7-16
Our PickStrong Lean
Bulldogs to win comfortably
Margin14+Total45 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
47 votesWinner
Bulldogs
56% agree
Line
By 14+
60% more
Total
45 pts
74% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Dogs have found another gear lately and this shapes as their game to lose. They're at home with fine weather locked in, they defend tighter than Brisbane's leaky outfit, and they've got ice in close finishes. The real risk is that slow start habit of theirs, though. If Brisbane stay within arm's reach at halftime, this gets properly interesting.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usBulldogs 70%30%
Brisbane's back end has been leaking for weeks and that's the story everyone's telling. The pride game angle is real, but it's the defensive slide that decides this one.
The room's landed exactly where we did, leaning heavy on a Broncos defence that's been cut open week after week and a Bulldogs side that just look sharper right now.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Form12 mentions
Most write ups keep hammering that Brisbane's defence has fallen apart in recent weeks and that this form slide is too heavy to ignore no matter what the fixture history says.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We already had the leaky Broncos defence baked into this call, it's one of the clearest reasons we like the Bulldogs by the margin we do.
Coach10 mentions
There is an ongoing argument in footy media about whether Brisbane's slump is simply down to a horror injury run or a deeper drop in effort and fundamentals, with the coach pushing back publicly against that suggestion.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
Whether this is genuinely an injury crisis or a deeper effort issue is something we can't see clearly from outside the club, and it changes how much stock to put in a bounce-back.
Matchup8 mentions
Several previews note Brisbane have historically owned this fixture and query whether that hoodoo can still count for anything given how far the Broncos have fallen this year.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
History says Brisbane have owned this fixture, but we're backing what's happening on the field right now over what happened in years gone by.
Talk9 mentions
With finals hopes gone for both clubs, a fair chunk of the chatter frames this as a pride game that could still be entertaining given neither side has anything left to lose.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
A dead-rubber pride game can cut either way, some teams switch off and some play with total freedom, and we won't know which version turns up until kickoff.
What's driving the pick
Bulldogs
🧊
Ice in the clutch - 4 of 6 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
🐌
Slow out of the blocks - outscored by 3.1 points a half before the break.
✈️
Poor travellers - only 4-8 away from home.
Broncos
🐌
Slow out of the blocks - outscored by 7.5 points a half before the break.
🕳️
Leaky at the back - shipping 28.6 points a game.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing, and the meters behind it - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Bulldogs
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Broncos
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Panthersv
StormErrors Down 4 on their last 5 average
Tackle breaks Down 12 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Run metres
Bulldogs1,7331,5831,485Broncos1,5211,4111,519
Post-contact metres
Bulldogs565522487Broncos512483486
Line breaks
Bulldogs5.05.24Broncos3.94.45
Tackle breaks
Bulldogs32.027.224Broncos28.230.218
Offloads
Bulldogs11.711.011Broncos5.76.67
Kick metres
Bulldogs626671813Broncos614530494
Completion
Bulldogs78%78%84%Broncos77%75%73%
Set distance
Bulldogs413834Broncos383531
Errors
Bulldogs11.612.08Broncos11.412.014
Missed tackles
Bulldogs33.734.031Broncos32.334.839
Effective tackle %
Bulldogs88%87%88%Broncos88%88%86%
Penalties conceded
Bulldogs5.26.86Broncos5.86.26
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer errors, missed tackles and penalties count as better.
⏱
Half-Time Watch
Angles to have ready at the break - bets that come into play if the first half unfolds like this.
If the first half is a grind → expect it to stay that way - the 2nd-half under is the value.
When these sides have played out a quiet first half, the second half has averaged 19.6 points - well down on the 22.4 their games usually produce after the break. Quiet halves have stayed quiet, not burst open.
In-play prompts from season scoring patterns - not live odds. Always your call at the break.
Team news & line-ups
Bulldogs
- 1Connor Tracey
- 2Jacob Kiraz
- 3Matt Burton
- 4Bronson Xerri
- 5Enari Tuala
- 6Stephen Crichton (c)
- 7Lachlan Galvin
- 8Max King
- 9Bailey Hayward
- 10Leo Thompson
- 11Viliame Kikau
- 12Jacob Preston
- 13Jaeman Salmon
Interchange
- 14Jake Turpin
- 15Alekolasimi Jones
- 16Harry Hayes
- 17Josh Curran
Broncos
- 1Hayze Perham
- 2Josiah Karapani
- 3Kotoni Staggs
- 4Deine Mariner
- 5Grant Anderson
- 6Ezra Mam
- 7Ben Hunt
- 8Xavier Willison
- 9Billy Walters
- 10Payne Haas
- 11Jaiyden Hunt
- 12Jordan Riki
- 13Patrick Carrigan (c)
Interchange
- 14Thomas Duffy
- 15Va'a Semu
- 16Jack Gosiewski
- 17Aublix Tawha
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Season form guide
BulldogsvsBroncos
10Ladder15
11-12Win–Loss7-16
19.8Pts for /game19.0
21.8Pts against /game28.6
2 - 3Last 51 - 4
1LStreak1L
7 - 4Home / Away5 - 6
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.