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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Round 27Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys
13-10
vSat, 5 Sept, 5:30 pm AEST
Raiders
10-13
Our PickSlight Lean
Cowboys to win
Margin7Total49 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
47 votesWinner
Cowboys
49% agree
Line
By 7+
55% more
Total
49 pts
58% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Form's telling a story this week. Raiders have hit their straps lately and they're fresher, but that road trip to North Queensland is brutal and they tend to leak points after half time. Cowboys thrive in tight finishes at home, though a shorter turnaround could dull them. Raiders' fade pattern in the second half is the real worry here.
↻ Since we tipped it
Tip's still Cowboys, but the margin's firmed to seven. Dearden and Hess coming back for North Queensland while the Raiders get Papalii and Martin up, though losing Taulagi stings the Cowboys a bit.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Cowboys
🧊
Ice in the clutch - 4 of 6 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Raiders
📉
Tend to fade - conceding 3.7 more points than they score in second halves.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing, and the meters behind it - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Cowboys
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Raiders
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Wests Tigersv
BroncosMissed tackles Down 11 on their last 5 average
Penalties Down 4 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Run metres
Cowboys1,7361,6651,620Raiders1,6581,6301,673
Post-contact metres
Cowboys563569575Raiders535515535
Line breaks
Cowboys5.34.44Raiders4.35.25
Tackle breaks
Cowboys32.631.634Raiders36.337.437
Offloads
Cowboys9.17.210Raiders11.010.215
Kick metres
Cowboys563560369Raiders608621557
Completion
Cowboys76%74%70%Raiders79%85%86%
Set distance
Cowboys434341Raiders414039
Errors
Cowboys11.812.215Raiders10.48.88
Missed tackles
Cowboys35.834.824Raiders33.133.633
Effective tackle %
Cowboys87%88%91%Raiders88%88%90%
Penalties conceded
Cowboys5.56.45Raiders5.05.41
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer errors, missed tackles and penalties count as better.
⏱
Half-Time Watch
Angles to have ready at the break - bets that come into play if the first half unfolds like this.
No clear half-time angle from this season's splits - the pre-game pick is the main view.
In-play prompts from season scoring patterns - not live odds. Always your call at the break.
Team news & line-ups
Cowboys - out
- Murray Taulagi · Winger−1.2
Raiders - out
- Ethan Sanders · Halfback−4.5
- Zac Hosking · 2nd Row−1.5
Cowboys
- 1Scott Drinkwater
- 2Braidon Burns
- 3Jaxon Purdue
- 4Tom Chester
- 5Robert Derby
- 6Jake Clifford
- 7Tom Dearden (c)
- 8Coen Hess
- 9Reed Mahoney
- 10Jason Taumalolo
- 11Heilum Luki
- 12John Bateman
- 13Reuben Cotter (c)
Interchange
- 14Soni Luke
- 15Sam McIntyre
- 16Thomas Mikaele
- 17Kaiden Lahrs
Raiders
- 1Kaeo Weekes
- 2Jed Stuart
- 3Simi Sasagi
- 4Matthew Timoko
- 5Xavier Savage
- 6Ethan Strange
- 7Coby Black
- 8Josh Papalii
- 9Owen Pattie
- 10Joseph Tapine
- 11Noah Martin
- 12Matty Nicholson
- 13Ata Mariota
Interchange
- 14Malachi Smith
- 15Joe Roddy
- 16Morgan Smithies
- 17Vena Patuki-Case
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Season form guide
CowboysvsRaiders
8Ladder12
13-10Win–Loss10-13
23.4Pts for /game23.1
26.2Pts against /game25.9
2 - 2Last 51 - 3
1WStreak1L
7 - 4Home / Away5 - 6
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.