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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Late Mail
Gray and Mitchell back for Souths, Collins and Ramsey returning for the Chooks, but we're switching from Roosters to Rabbitohs.
Round 27Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Rabbitohs
13-10
vFri, 4 Sept, 8:00 pm AEST
Roosters
16-7
Our PickLine-Ball
Rabbitohs - too close to call
Total49 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
49 votesWinner
Rabbitohs
48% agree
Line
By 3+
72% more
Total
49 pts
57% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
We were on the Roosters last time, we're off them now. Gray and Mitchell back for Souths changes the maths here, especially with Duncan out for the Chooks in the centres. This matchup hinges on whether Souths' fullback and centre can create enough for their attack to trouble a Roosters defence giving up just 19.6 a game. Fine conditions suit both, but Souths at home with fresher bodies gets the nod in what's genuinely line-ball. Watch whether the Chooks' finisher mentality overrides it.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Thursday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Rabbitohs
🧊
Ice in the clutch - 4 of 6 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
Roosters
💪
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 4 points after half-time on average.
🧊
Ice in the clutch - 4 of 6 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 19.6 points a game.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing, and the meters behind it - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Rabbitohs
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Roosters
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Titansv
DolphinsPost-contact metres Up 83m on their last 5 average
Missed tackles Up 12 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Run metres
Rabbitohs1,7151,7061,917Roosters1,7761,8091,928
Post-contact metres
Rabbitohs537527610Roosters610596649
Line breaks
Rabbitohs6.77.88Roosters5.06.67
Tackle breaks
Rabbitohs32.934.639Roosters35.739.237
Offloads
Rabbitohs7.26.04Roosters10.712.223
Kick metres
Rabbitohs612632849Roosters582622455
Completion
Rabbitohs79%81%85%Roosters78%80%81%
Set distance
Rabbitohs414346Roosters414145
Errors
Rabbitohs10.79.27Roosters12.511.212
Missed tackles
Rabbitohs34.136.448Roosters26.925.829
Effective tackle %
Rabbitohs86%86%83%Roosters89%90%91%
Penalties conceded
Rabbitohs4.94.44Roosters5.35.86
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer errors, missed tackles and penalties count as better.
⏱
Half-Time Watch
Angles to have ready at the break - bets that come into play if the first half unfolds like this.
If the first half turns into a shootout → the points usually keep coming - the 2nd-half over is the value.
After high-scoring first halves, these sides have averaged 31.2 points after the break, up on the 25.2 their games usually produce.
If Roosters are within a score at the break, don't write them off → they've made a habit of reeling sides in - HT/FT Rabbitohs/Roosters is the value angle.
From narrow half-time deficits Roosters average +5.5 after the break, coming back to win 3 of 4.
In-play prompts from season scoring patterns - not live odds. Always your call at the break.
Team news & line-ups
Rabbitohs - out
- Tallis Duncan · Centre−1.4
Roosters - out
- Sam Walker · Halfback−4.5
- Daly Cherry-Evans · Five-Eighth−4
- Reece Robson · Hooker−3.5
- Victor Radley · Lock−2
- Naufahu Whyte · Prop−1.8
- Siua Wong · 2nd Row−1.5
- Hugo Savala · Centre−1.4
- Robert Toia · Centre−1.4
- Billy Smith · Winger−1.2
- Mark Nawaqanitawase · Winger−1.2
Rabbitohs
- 1Jye Gray
- 2Alex Johnston
- 3Latrell Mitchell
- 4Jack Wighton
- 5Campbell Graham
- 6Cody Walker
- 7Jayden Sullivan
- 8Tevita Tatola
- 9Brandon Smith
- 10Keaon Koloamatangi
- 11David Fifita
- 12Adam Elliott
- 13Cameron Murray (c)
Interchange
- 14Matthew Dufty
- 15Lachlan Hubner
- 16Sean Keppie
- 17Jamie Humphreys
Roosters
- 1Cody Ramsey
- 2Daniel Tupou
- 3Fetalaiga Pauga
- 4Tommy Talau
- 5Rex Bassingthwaighte
- 6Reece Foley
- 7Toby Rodwell
- 8Spencer Leniu
- 9Benaiah Ioelu
- 10Lindsay Collins (c)
- 11Salesi Foketi
- 12Egan Butcher
- 13Connor Watson (c)
Interchange
- 14Tom Rodwell
- 15Taylor Losalu
- 16De La Salle Va'a
- 17Aston Warwick
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Season form guide
RabbitohsvsRoosters
6Ladder4
13-10Win–Loss16-7
28.0Pts for /game26.0
24.4Pts against /game19.6
3 - 2Last 53 - 2
1WStreak2L
8 - 3Home / Away8 - 3
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.