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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Round 27Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Warriors
17-6
vSat, 5 Sept, 3:00 pm AEST
Sea Eagles
11-12
Our PickStrong Lean
Warriors to win
Margin12Total47 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
45 votesWinner
Warriors
59% agree
Line
By 12+
59% more
Total
47 pts
56% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Sea Eagles have tightened up lately after looking ordinary, but the Warriors' five-game tear is the real thing. They're outsourcing Manly by 7.8 points after the break and building early leads at home, where conditions favour their attacking game. Problem is they've only won one of four tight finishes, and Manly's playing for their finals life.
↻ Since we tipped it
Still backing the Warriors, but the margin's tightened slightly to 12 points. Martin and Pompey's return for Canberra is offset by losing Egan and Capewell, while Feledy coming back helps Manly a touch.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday morning, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Warriors
💪
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 7.8 points after half-time on average.
🚀
Fast starters - average a 5.7-point first-half lead (15 pts a half).
🔥
Red-hot - riding a 5-game winning streak.
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 16.9 points a game.
🏰
Fortress at home - 9-2 on their own deck this season.
😬
Shaky in tight finishes - just 1 of 4 one-score games won.
Sea Eagles
🚀
Fast starters - average a 3.2-point first-half lead (13.4 pts a half).
😬
Shaky in tight finishes - just 1 of 7 one-score games won.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing, and the meters behind it - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Warriors
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Sea Eagles
Season23 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Knightsv
DragonsTackle breaks Up 14 on their last 5 average
Errors Up 5 on their last 5 average
Run metres Up 432m on their last 5 average
Tackle breaks Up 10 on their last 5 average
Post-contact metres Up 95m on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Run metres
Warriors1,7471,8511,808Sea Eagles1,7091,5942,026
Post-contact metres
Warriors565608600Sea Eagles571552647
Line breaks
Warriors6.38.28Sea Eagles5.64.88
Tackle breaks
Warriors34.441.055Sea Eagles30.027.037
Offloads
Warriors8.18.07Sea Eagles8.99.212
Kick metres
Warriors621562296Sea Eagles605494553
Completion
Warriors82%84%79%Sea Eagles78%75%80%
Set distance
Warriors404542Sea Eagles403940
Errors
Warriors10.59.214Sea Eagles11.611.412
Missed tackles
Warriors34.333.837Sea Eagles30.931.622
Effective tackle %
Warriors87%87%83%Sea Eagles87%87%88%
Penalties conceded
Warriors4.23.43Sea Eagles4.64.41
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer errors, missed tackles and penalties count as better.
⏱
Half-Time Watch
Angles to have ready at the break - bets that come into play if the first half unfolds like this.
If it's close at the break, momentum is with Warriors → back the streak - their 2nd-half line / win-2nd-half is the value.
Warriors have won 5 straight and are running hot late - +8.2 after the break across their last 5 games.
In-play prompts from season scoring patterns - not live odds. Always your call at the break.
Team news & line-ups
Warriors - out
- Wayde Egan · Hooker−3.5
- Kurt Capewell · 2nd Row−1.5
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak · Winger−1.2
Sea Eagles - out
- Tolutau Koula · Centre−1.4
Warriors
- 1Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
- 2Adam Pompey
- 3Ali Leiataua
- 4Leka Halasima
- 5Alofiana Khan-Pereira
- 6Chanel Harris-Tavita
- 7Te Maire Martin
- 8James Fisher-Harris (c)
- 9Sam Healey
- 10Mitchell Barnett (c)
- 11Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
- 12Jacob Laban
- 13Erin Clark
Interchange
- 14Makaia Tafua
- 15Tanner Stowers-Smith
- 16Demitric Vaimauga
- 17Morgan Gannon
Sea Eagles
- 1Tom Trbojevic (c)
- 2Jason Saab
- 3Josh Feledy
- 4Reuben Garrick
- 5Lehi Hopoate
- 6Clayton Faulalo
- 7Jamal Fogarty
- 8Simione Laiafi
- 9Brandon Wakeham
- 10Nathan Brown
- 11Haumole Olakau'atu
- 12Ben Trbojevic
- 13Jake Trbojevic (c)
Interchange
- 14Jake Simpkin
- 15Nicholas Lenaz
- 16Corey Waddell
- 17Caleb Navale
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Season form guide
WarriorsvsSea Eagles
1Ladder9
17-6Win–Loss11-12
30.3Pts for /game25.8
16.9Pts against /game21.4
5 - 0Last 52 - 2
5WStreak2W
9 - 2Home / Away5 - 6
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.