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F
FormPicksSunday 20 September
Finals Week 2Eden Park, Auckland
Warriors
18-6
vSun, 20 Sept, 4:05 pm AEST
Knights
14-10
Our PickStrong Lean
Warriors to win comfortably
Margin13+Total49 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
92 votesWinner
Warriors
60% agree
Line
By 13+
66% more
Total
49 pts
73% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Knights have clutch form in tight games, but the Warriors are a different beast. They're scoring seven points more than opponents after half-time, starting strong at home, and their defence is suffocating at 17.4 conceded per game. Five wins on the trot speaks for itself. Long road trip for Newcastle could be the thing that costs them here.
↻ Since we tipped it
Warriors over Knights still holds. The margin's tightened from 11 to 13 points with Pompey back in the centres for the Warriors and Mooney unavailable for the Knights.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usWarriors 60%40%
Warriors look the sharper, more settled side heading into this one, riding form and a defence that's held up all year.
The room is basically with us, leaning Warriors like we are, and for the same reasons, home track, travel, and current form.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Finals15 mentions
There is a strong feeling the Warriors are under real pressure to avoid a back to back finals exit after last week's home defeat, with talk of them needing to respond immediately at a bigger venue.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
That pressure to bounce back at home is exactly why we like them here, teams coming off a bad night at a bigger venue usually respond hard.
Matchup12 mentions
A lot of the talk is about whether the Knights' outside backs can target the very edge frailties the Dolphins pounced on last week.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
If the Knights outside backs find the same soft edge the Dolphins did, that's a real live threat to our margin that we can't rule out from here.
Talk15 mentions
People disagree on how this game will actually be played out, with some expecting a tight defensive arm wrestle and others predicting a high scoring shootout given both sides' patchy recent form.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We're backing the tight arm wrestle read, that miserly defence doesn't just show up and disappear against a side that's been patchy all year.
What's driving the pick
Warriors
💪
Strong finishers - outscore opponents by 6.3 points after half-time on average.
🚀
Fast starters - average a 5.7-point first-half lead (15.1 pts a half).
🔥
Red-hot - riding a 5-game winning streak.
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 17.4 points a game.
🏰
Fortress at home - 10-2 on their own deck this season.
Knights
🧊
Ice in the clutch - 6 of 10 games decided by six or less have gone their way.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing, and the meters behind it - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
⚡
Momentum
Warriors
Season25 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Knights
Season25 games
Last 55 games
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Sea EaglesvWarriorsMissed tackles Up 17 on their last 5 average
Post-contact metres Up 133m on their last 5 average
Missed tackles Down 13 on their last 5 average
Run metres Up 262m on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Run metres
Warriors1,7411,6951,595Knights1,6591,5771,839
Post-contact metres
Warriors564549555Knights502451584
Line breaks
Warriors6.15.82Knights6.28.26
Tackle breaks
Warriors35.040.842Knights36.338.039
Offloads
Warriors8.06.86Knights9.87.811
Kick metres
Warriors614535616Knights574474491
Completion
Warriors82%83%83%Knights77%77%83%
Set distance
Warriors404137Knights414044
Errors
Warriors10.49.410Knights11.711.414
Missed tackles
Warriors35.137.855Knights33.834.822
Effective tackle %
Warriors86%84%84%Knights88%87%92%
Penalties conceded
Warriors4.23.64Knights4.95.06
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer errors, missed tackles and penalties count as better.
⏱
Half-Time Watch
Angles to have ready at the break - bets that come into play if the first half unfolds like this.
If it's tight at the break → back Warriors to own the second half - their 2nd-half line / win-2nd-half is the value.
Warriors win second halves by 6.3 points a game on average. At home their second halves step up again - +3.3 after the break on their own deck.
In-play prompts from season scoring patterns - not live odds. Always your call at the break.
Team news & line-ups
Warriors: full-strength side named.
Knights - out
- Trey Mooney · Prop−1.8
Warriors
- 1Taine Tuaupiki
- 2Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
- 3Ali Leiataua
- 4Adam Pompey
- 5Alofiana Khan-Pereira
- 6Chanel Harris-Tavita
- 7Te Maire Martin
- 8James Fisher-Harris (c)
- 9Wayde Egan
- 10Mitchell Barnett (c)
- 11Kurt Capewell
- 12Jacob Laban
- 13Erin Clark
Interchange
- 14Sam Healey
- 15Tanner Stowers-Smith
- 16Demitric Vaimauga
- 17Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
Knights
- 1Kalyn Ponga (c)
- 2Dominic Young
- 3Dane Gagai
- 4Bradman Best
- 5Greg Marzhew
- 6Fletcher Sharpe
- 7Sandon Smith
- 8Tyson Frizell
- 9Phoenix Crossland
- 10Cody Hopwood
- 11Jermaine McEwen
- 12Francis Manuleleua
- 13Mat Croker
Interchange
- 14Harrison Graham
- 15Lachlan Crouch
- 16Pasami Saulo
- 17Thomas Cant
Named squads from the official team lists. “Out” compares the named side to each team's recent first-choice; the figure is the projected points swing.
Season form guide
WarriorsvsKnights
2Ladder7
18-6Win–Loss14-10
30.3Pts for /game26.4
17.4Pts against /game24.6
5 - 0Last 52 - 2
5WStreak2L
10 - 2Home / Away6 - 6
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NRL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.