Horsham ยท Race 1 ยท 2100m ยท Good 4 ยท $42,500
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Sun, 18 Oct, 1:35 pm AEDT
Race Analysis
Clear order
Courting is our top rating with a real gap to the rest.
Standout
Clear order
Two-horse race
Open race
Big field
๐ฏ The winner is in our three
72% our three
Courting
Top pick
38%
Little Ally Bama
Danger
27%
Vadar
Next Best
7%
The other 7between them
28%
Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.
๐งฎWhat is pulling each rating
The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.
Swipe the grid sideways for every signal
The rest of the field
๐How they will settle
A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.
Settles back ยท runs on late
runs on late
No set pattern ยท could go either way
could go either way
On the speed ยท likes to lead
likes to lead
๐Head to head
Where Courting has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.
Show 2 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Sitar vs Eminent Ella
Sitar finished 7th to 9th at Mildura 5 months ago, 6.2 lengths clear.
Son Of Vadamos vs Eminent Ella
Son Of Vadamos finished 7th to 8th at Swan Hill last month, a head clear.
๐The field
Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.
Jump to a runner
Courting
Top pickLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Courting has placed in 2 of 3 career starts, which is a promising record at only 3. It was placed last start, beaten 5.5L, and trainer form, recent form, late speed and class are all strengths. The main thing to watch is the going - this is its first run on soft and it is untested in these conditions.
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Little Ally Bama
DangerLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Little Ally Bama owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 8.1 lengths a km under the track average. It was placed last start, beaten 6.5L, and recent speed, jockey form and best speed are all strengths. Running style is the one concern.
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Vadar
Next BestLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
The Aaron Laing/Jett Stanley combination is striking 255% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and class is a genuine strength. It draws barrier 2 for a soft run, but recent form and recent speed are concerns. It returns to blinkers. The main thing to watch is the wet - Vadar is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 3 tries.
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Sitar
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
The case leans on concerns over recent form, late speed and jockey form, so it has little going for it on current evidence. It does draw barrier 1, which should give it a soft run into the race. The main thing to watch is the wet - Sitar is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 5 tries.
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Under Control
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Recent form, recent speed and best speed are all concerns, so the case is thin. It draws barrier 3 for a soft run, which is a plus. It is also making its first start in blinkers. The main thing to watch is the going - this is its first run on soft and it is untested in these conditions.
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Son Of Vadamos
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Raharna McDonald is in form, running 40% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Against that, the case is held back by concerns over class, age and sex, and recent speed. The main thing to watch is the wet - Son Of Vadamos is yet to win on soft from 16 tries.
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Eminent Ella
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
The Nathan Hobson/Ryan Hurdle combination is striking 70% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and form through rivals is a strength. Recent form, class and recent speed are all concerns, so the case rests on the combination and the strength of its rivals' form rather than its own recent efforts.
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Taajwar
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Taajwar has been among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 4.9 lengths a km under the track average, and D C Saxon is in form at 35% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Held back by concerns over class, late speed, running style and trainer form, and it is making its first start in blinkers. The main thing to watch is the wet - Taajwar is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 7 tries.
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Empress Of China
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
The Dan O'Sullivan/Declan Bates combination is striking 46% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Recent form, trainer form and recent speed are all concerns. The main thing to watch is the draw - it has a wide barrier 9 of 10 to overcome.
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Helichrysum
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class