Carlton Draught Mdn Plate

The case leans on its recent form and a trainer currently in form, with the horse placed 2 of 2 first-up and beaten half a length last start. Its running style also works in its favour. The main concern is the fresh record, and today's first-time winkers are the thing to watch.

The horse has the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 9.8 lengths a km under the track average, and was placed last start, beaten 2L. Tyler Donaldson-Aitken is in form at 76% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Class is the concern, and it has a wide barrier 13 of 13 to overcome, which is the main thing to watch.

The horse was placed last start, beaten 4L, and its recent form and trainer form both count in its favour. Age and sex and jockey form are concerns. Its record is limited to that one recent placing, so the jockey and the age-and-sex factor are what to watch.

The P Kearney/John Allen combo is striking 46% above expectation across the last 100, and the horse has a soft run from barrier 1. It is making its first run back from a spell with no first-up record, and it is untested on soft going. The lack of a first-up record and the untested conditions are the main things to watch.

Trainer form is a strength and the horse has a soft run from barrier 2. Recent form, recent speed and running style are concerns. It has not run on soft going before and is wearing blinkers for the first time, so the untested conditions and new gear are what to watch.

Jockey Craig Atkinson is riding 27% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and Karlene Tindale is in form at 407% above expectation across the last 100 runners. The horse has a soft run from barrier 3. It is making its first run back from a spell with no first-up record, and it has not yet run on soft going, which is the main thing to watch.

The horse is placed 2 of 3 career starts at only 3, and it was beaten 4L last start, so its recent form is respectable. Its recent speed and best speed both count against it, and the trainer's form is a concern. It has not yet run on soft going, which is the main thing to watch.

Jockey Dean Yendall is riding 26% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and P A Preusker is 97% above expectation across the last 100 runners, which supports the case. Recent form is a positive. The concerns are class and late speed, so the question is whether it can carry its form up in company.

The horse is placed first-up (1 from 2) and is noted as running well fresh, and the case is backed by a class move and class rating. The P A Preusker/Shayleigh Ingelse combo is striking 124% above expectation across the last 100. Recent form is the concern, so its race readiness after the break is what to watch.

The Jason Warren/Dylan Dunn combo is striking 135% above expectation across the last 100, and the horse's running style and experience are positives. Recent form and class are concerns. It is wearing blinkers for the first time, which is the main thing to watch.