Nowra ยท Race 3 ยท 1400m ยท Soft 7 ยท $27,000
Kevin & Dawn Robinson Memorial (Bm58)
Sun, 18 Oct, 2:55 pm AEDT
Race Analysis
Clear order
Kool Kade is our top rating with a real gap to the rest.
Standout
Clear order
Two-horse race
Open race
Big field
Where the win chances sit
57% our three
Kool Kade
Top pick
28%
Perchance
Danger
16%
Awesome Artist
Next Best
13%
The other 8between them
43%
Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.
๐งฎWhat is pulling each rating
The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.
Swipe the grid sideways for every signal
The rest of the field
๐How they will settle
A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.
Settles back ยท runs on late
runs on late
No set pattern ยท could go either way
could go either way
On the speed ยท likes to lead
likes to lead
๐Head to head
Where Kool Kade has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.
Show 3 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Angel In The Wind vs Dunwithya
Angel In The Wind finished 4th to 9th at Moruya a fortnight ago, 4.1 lengths clear.
Celestial Grace vs Ciao Bella Mia
Celestial Grace finished 3rd to 9th at Nowra last month, 3.2 lengths clear.
Sir Sublime vs Adasiti
Sir Sublime finished 5th to 9th at Cootamundra a fortnight ago, 2 lengths clear.
๐The field
Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.
Jump to a runner
Kool Kade
Top pickLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
The case leans on its recent form, with a win by half a length at Moruya last start and recent speed that backs it up. Trainer form is a plus, and in-form jockey Deon Le Roux is riding 22% above expectation across the last 100 rides. Class is the concern, and there is no standout speed figure to lean on, so watch whether it can handle a step up in company.
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Perchance
DangerLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Awesome Artist
Next BestLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 2.0 lengths a km under the track average, and its class and class move both count in its favour. It has handled the soft, with 1 win from 3 starts on soft ground, and in-form jockey Alysha Collett is riding 31% above expectation across the last 100 rides. Recent form and fitness/freshness are the concerns. It is first-time blinkers, so sharpening gear is the main thing to watch.
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Dunwithya
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Trainer form is a strength, and the Natalie Jarvis/Damon Budler combination is striking 42% above expectation across the last 100 rides. It is drawn to get a soft run from barrier 2. Class, recent form and late speed are the concerns. It is first-time blinkers, so the sharpening gear is the main thing to watch.
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Ciao Bella Mia
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
It was placed last start, beaten half a length, so it is racing in form and its recent speed is a strength. Anthony Mountney is in form, 22% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Age and sex and class are the concerns, so the case rests on its current form holding against this company.
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Adasiti
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Ulysses Blue
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 3.4 lengths a km under the track average, and late speed is a strength. Recent form, age and sex, and running style are the concerns. It is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 11 tries, and it returns to blinkers, so the wet ground is the main thing to watch.
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Celestial Grace
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Its recent speed is the strength in its case. Class, late speed and trainer form are the concerns, so it needs to show something new to lift above them. It is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 4 tries, which is the main thing to watch.
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Angel In The Wind
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
It is second-up today and has run well, placed 2 of 3 at this run, while trainer form and class both count in its favour. Age and sex is the concern. It is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 7 tries, so the soft ground is the main thing to watch.
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Sir Sublime
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
In-form jockey Jess Taylor is riding 65% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and running style is a strength. Class and trainer form are the concerns. It has a wide barrier 11 of 12 to overcome, which is the main thing to watch.
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Jamarni
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
The Warren Ganderton/Louise Day combination is striking 84% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and it has form through rivals working for it. Class, jockey form and barrier are the concerns. It is unproven in the wet, yet to win on soft from 7 tries, and it has a wide barrier 12 of 12 to overcome, which is the main thing to watch.
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ScratchedFlying Maurice