Energy Australia Mdn Plate

It has been placed first-up (1 from 1) and runs well fresh, which is encouraging for a horse resuming today. It was also placed last start, beaten 3.5L, so it arrives racing in form, supported by strong late speed, experience and class.

It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, and class, age and sex, and running style all add support. Trainer form is a concern that pulls the other way. The main thing to watch is that it runs first-time winkers today, a gear change that could affect its performance.

Jason Warren is in form, riding 74% above expectation across the last 100 runners, which is the key positive. Class, experience, age and sex, and running style all support the case. There are no speed figure standouts, so it relies more on its profile than on raw speed.

The case is held back by concerns over its recent form, best speed, recent speed and trainer form, so it has little standout backing. The main plus is the Ms S Trolove/Mitchell Aitken combo, striking 62% above expectation over the last 100, and a draw from barrier 1 that should give it a soft run. Watch whether the trainer form and recent speed concerns hold up on the day.

The C W McDonald/Beau Mertens combo is striking 35% above expectation over the last 100, and a draw from barrier 3 should give it a soft run. There is no standout rating driver either way. The main thing to watch is that this is its first run back from a spell, with no first-up record yet.

Class is a genuine positive, but fitness and freshness, recent form and jockey form all count against it. It runs first-time blinkers, which is the main thing to watch, as the gear change could sharpen it or fail to lift a horse whose recent form has been questionable.

There is no standout positive or negative in its inputs to lean on. The key fact is that this is its first run back from a spell, with no first-up record yet, so the main thing to watch is how it handles the return to racing.

It has some of the quickest recent time figures in the field, and recent form, class and late speed all back it. The main concern is jockey form, which is the one area that pulls against an otherwise strong profile.