Lismore · Race 2 · 2120m · Soft 6 · $27,000
Somerville Laundry Lomax Plate (C1)
Sun, 18 Oct, 2:40 pm AEDT
Race Analysis
Two-horse race
We cannot split Zweigelt and Bills Angel. Either could be the one.
Standout
Clear order
Two-horse race
Open race
Big field
🎯 The winner is in our three
78% our three
Zweigelt
Top pick
33%
Bills Angel
Danger
32%
Pineto Lad
Next Best
13%
The other 3between them
22%
Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.
🧮What is pulling each rating
The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.
Swipe the grid sideways for every signal
The rest of the field
🏁How they will settle
A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.
Settles back · runs on late
runs on late
No set pattern · could go either way
could go either way
On the speed · likes to lead
likes to lead
🔁Head to head
Where Zweigelt has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.
Show 3 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Bills Angel vs Desert Angel
Bills Angel finished 2nd to 6th at Grafton two months ago, 2.2 lengths clear.
Bills Angel vs Smelter
Bills Angel finished 2nd to 5th at Gold Coast Poly a fortnight ago, 9 lengths clear.
Sea Warning vs Bills Angel
Sea Warning finished 3rd to 8th at Gold Coast 4 months ago, 5.2 lengths clear.
🐎The field
Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.
Jump to a runner
Zweigelt
Top pickLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Zweigelt handles the soft with 1 win from 3 starts on soft ground, and in-form jockey Jett Newman is riding 25% above expectation across the last 100 rides. It is drawn to get a soft run from barrier 3, and trainer form and a class move are supporting factors. Its class rating is a concern and it has no standout speed figure.
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Bills Angel
DangerLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Bills Angel was placed last start, beaten 1.5L, and its recent form, recent speed, class move and jockey form are all rated as strengths. It is unproven in the wet, having yet to win on soft from 5 tries. The wide barrier 7 of 7 to overcome is the main thing to watch.
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Pineto Lad
Next BestLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
The standout here is speed - it owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 5.9 lengths a km under the track average. The Owen Glue/Archie Mc Colm combination is striking 48% above expectation (last 100), and jockey and trainer form both add support. The class rating is a concern, and today's first-time winkers are the main thing to watch.
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Mahuika Maroi
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Mahuika Maroi has a drawn barrier 1 that should give it a soft run, but its class, recent speed, recent form and jockey form are all rated as concerns. Today is its first run on soft going, so it is untested in these conditions. That lack of wet-track evidence is the main thing to watch.
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Desert Angel
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Desert Angel won its last start by 2.5L at Gold Coast, and P L Shailer is in form at 32% above expectation across the last 100 runners. It is drawn to get a soft run from barrier 2. Its best speed, class and recent speed are concerns, and it is unproven in the wet, having yet to win on soft from 4 tries, which is the main thing to watch.
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Smelter
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Smelter is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 4.2 lengths a km under the track average, and its recent speed and a class move both count in its favour. Its recent form and class ratings are concerns. The wide barrier 6 of 7 to overcome is the main thing to watch.
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ScratchedSea Warning