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Feather · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Giga Chikadze
"Ninja"
15-6-0

Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
19-5-1
Won 1 of 5
Last DEC v Kevin Vallejos
Won 3 of 5
Last SUB v Jordan Leavitt
Our pick

Joanderson Brito
to win on the cards
Solid call · 63%
Brito's won three of five while Chikadze has managed one win in the same stretch, and the difference matters. Brito takes the ground and controls the pace to a decision. The risk is Chikadze out-striking him on volume.
Brito's pressure and wrestling look like the exact puzzle Chikadze hasn't solved in years, and the feeling is his career clock is ticking louder than ever.
The room is basically reading this fight the way we are, with the pressure and grappling problem Brito brings seen as Chikadze's kryptonite. For the room to be wrong, Chikadze needs to find one of those old sharp counters early and turn a decision fight into a highlight reel.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
There is a strong feeling that Chikadze is on the slide after years of alternating poor form and flashes of his old self, with people openly wondering if his career is winding down.
This decline narrative is exactly why we're backing the younger man rather than treating this as a coinflip.
The recurring argument is that Brito's mix of pressure, wrestling and submissions is the exact kind of stylistic problem that has troubled Chikadze in recent years.
That's the stylistic clash we built the tip around, pressure and wrestling are precisely where Chikadze has looked shaky.
Plenty of commentary points to Chikadze's age and accumulated damage as the reason his reflexes and durability look less reliable than in his prime.
The age and durability worries are baked into why we like Brito's activity to pile up rounds rather than expecting a shootout.
Even those tipping Brito admit Chikadze still carries genuine knockout power and could turn the fight with a single well timed counter.
That one-punch threat is the live unknown, if Chikadze times a shot early it flips the whole read regardless of how the rest plays out.
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Giga Chikadze wins by KO 10%, by submission 4%, on the cards 23%. Joanderson Brito wins by KO 13%, by submission 15%, on the cards 34%.
The model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
Green favours Joanderson Brito, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
How each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Giga Chikadze
Joanderson Brito
3 round fights
Giga Chikadze
8 of 11 to the cards · 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Joanderson Brito
5 of 11 to the cards · 6 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Giga Chikadze
1 of 2 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Joanderson Brito
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.