Loading UFC boutโฆ
Loading UFC boutโฆ
Heavy ยท 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-10-0

Robelis Despaigne
"The Big Boy"
6-2-0
Won 0 of 5
Last DEC v Louie Sutherland
Won 1 of 3
Last DEC v Austen Lane
Our pick
Too close to call
Model splits it 54-46. Not enough between them to name a winner.
Genuine toss-up here. Tuivasa's the younger, busier striker and harder to put down, but Despaigne takes cleaner shots and owns a reach edge that matters after nearly two years out. Expect the distance. What undoes this call is Despaigne's cardio after the layoff.
Tuivasa's slide has everyone writing him off, but Despaigne's own takedown holes keep this from being a lock either way.
The room has piled onto Despaigne mostly off the strength of Tuivasa's losing run and the reach and freshness edge, and that is a fair read if Despaigne can keep range and avoid the clinch.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Most previews treat Tuivasa's long losing run as the defining storyline, painting this as a last chance saloon fight rather than a genuine pick'em.
We already had Tuivasa's rough run baked into why we would not lean his way outright.
There is a repeated view that Despaigne's size and reach give him the cleaner path, but that his own history of struggling against clinch and takedown pressure is the one crack in his game.
That crack in Despaigne's takedown defence is exactly why we could not just hand him the fight on size alone.
Tuivasa's late switch to a new camp has fans and writers debating whether fresh training partners can turn his form around or whether it is a sign of a fighter searching for answers too late.
A late camp switch is the one thing we cannot see clearly from here, and it could tip this either direction once he is in there.
Despite the lopsided public picks, several writers still caution that Tuivasa's raw power means one clean shot could flip the fight regardless of the general trend of opinion against him.
Tuivasa's one-shot power is a big reason we kept this as a genuine toss-up instead of sliding with the crowd.
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO 15%, by submission 5%, on the cards 27%. Robelis Despaigne wins by KO 18%, by submission 5%, on the cards 31%.
The model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
Green favours Robelis Despaigne, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
How each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Tai Tuivasa
Robelis Despaigne
3 round fights
Tai Tuivasa
8 of 16 to the cards ยท 8 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Robelis Despaigne
2 of 3 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Tai Tuivasa
0 of 2 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Robelis Despaigne
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.