Loading UFC bout…
F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Light · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Balanced
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
18-5-0
Balanced
Axel Sola
12-1-1
LWWWW
Won 4 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last DEC v Tom Nolan
WLW
Won 2 of 3
Last SUB v Ismael Bonfim
Our pick
Too close to call
Model splits it 52-48. Not enough between them to name a winner.
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This one's genuinely too close to call. Ziam takes less damage but Sola's the busier striker and tougher to put down. The distance looks more likely than a stoppage, which doesn't help you pick a winner. Youth and activity could be the edge that undoes Ziam's durability.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Ziam 48%How it ends52% Sola
Fares Ziam wins by KO 9%, by submission 7%, on the cards 32%. Axel Sola wins by KO 19%, by submission 7%, on the cards 26%.
The distanceJudges 58%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
Damage absorbed
Striking volume
Takedowns conceded
Finishing rate
Stance matchup
Experience
Reach
Age
Green favours Axel Sola, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
2.68Strikes landed / min4.50
1.58Strikes absorbed / min4.53
0.21Knockdowns / 15 min0.94
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.00
Grappling
1.86Takedowns / 15 min1.89
2.17Takedowns conceded / 150.47
0.52Sub attempts / 15 min0.47
Finishing
13%Wins by finish100%
33%Losses by finish0%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
⚡
FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Fares Ziam
Career11 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Axel Sola
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Fares Ziam
9 of 11 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Axel Sola
1 of 3 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 1"Height6' 0"
75"Reach74"
29Age28
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
11UFC fights3
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.